Needed: A trilateral pact on the Brahmaputra river
India, China and Bangladesh should manage the shared resource in the
region and depoliticise water security.
ANALYSIS Updated: Jul 29, 2019 19:40 IST
The recent flooding
of the Brahmaputra, and China’s sharing of satellite data showing flooded
districts in Assam has brought attention to the need for better management of
this important river basin by China, India, and Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra is
the fifth-largest river in the world by flow. However, unlike the major river
systems of the Indus and the Ganga, it currently has no water-sharing treaty,
nor is an agreement under negotiation.
A recent book I
co-authored with Satu Limaye and Joel Wuthnow examines the challenges faced by
the three countries at the domestic, bilateral, and multilateral levels.
Underscoring the environmental and humanitarian challenges, the breach of the
Brahmaputra’s embankments in mid-July displaced an estimated 5.8 million people
in Assam and 400,000 people in northern Bangladesh. At a minimum, better
forecasting capabilities and data-sharing are required to reduce the impact of
future flooding on downstream populations.
But the geopolitical
stakes are also high, not least because the Brahmaputra runs through Arunachal
Pradesh, an area disputed by China as “Southern Tibet.” India, China, and
Bangladesh have not yet prioritised this issue, but continue to allow tensions
in diplomatic relations to compromise water security in this river basin.
For example, China
apparently cut off limited data-sharing with India due to the Doklam standoff
in 2017. The year before, China announced that it would temporarily divert the
Xiabuqu river — a tributary of the Brahmaputra, which is known as the Yarlung
Tsangpo in Tibet — due to the construction of a dam. Both moves caused alarm
among Indian policymakers and strategists over the potential for China to cause
difficulty to downstream countries.
However, India also
has a downstream neighbour — Bangladesh — which is concerned about India’s
river linking project, and its potential to adversely affect the resources of
the Brahmaputra (known as the Jamuna in Bangladesh). More immediately, Dhaka is
eager to finalise a water-sharing agreement over the Teesta River — a tributary
of the Brahmaputra — with New Delhi. The agreement has been stalled since the
failure to conclude it in 2011.
Being downstream of
China and India, Bangladesh suffers severe impacts (widespread erosion and
flooding), and thus, has the most to gain from a water-sharing agreement. But
India and China stand to benefit from an agreement as well. For China, this is
an opportunity for it to demonstrate leadership on a serious issue of human
security and improve its international reputation, which has been damaged by
the country’s assertiveness in East Asian waters.
India for its part
would benefit not only from data-sharing with China to mitigate flooding, but
also from the exchange of information about hydropower dam construction. As an
example of an important river cooperation, China was the first country to
provide India with satellite data of flooding in Assam after New Delhi
requested this information under the International Charter Space and Major
Disasters.
In recognition of the
challenges and uncertainties faced by the Brahmaputra stakeholders, the three
countries should take action. By the summer of 2020, India, China, and
Bangladesh should aim to sign a trilateral memorandum of understanding on the
Brahmaputra. This would represent an acknowledgment of the importance of this
basin, and the need for all three countries to work together to manage this
large body of shared resources.
In the short term, an
MoU that launches a dialogue between scientists and policymakers would help
depoliticise water security, and provide an opportunity for Prime Minister
Narendra Modi, President Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to demonstrate
high-profile cooperation to the international community.
An ambitious
long-term goal could be the formation of a Brahmaputra Basin Commission. The
attainment of this goal will face several obstacles, including China and India
agreeing to set aside the dispute over Arunachal Pradesh as it relates to water
security, and India bringing on board domestic-level stakeholders. But laying
the groundwork for a commission is a necessary first step in addressing the
environmental, humanitarian, and geopolitical threats that will only continue
to rise in the Brahmaputra River Basin.
Nilanthi
Samaranayake is director, strategy and policy analysis, CNA, Washington
The
views expressed are personal
Source: Hindustan Times, 29/07/2019
