Decline in Rural to Urban Migration in India

 Recent data from a study titled ‘400 Million Dreams!’ by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) indicates decline in rural to urban migration in India. The report reveals a reduction of 5.4 million migrants, or 11.8 per cent, compared to 2011. This decline is attributed to various factors, including improved government services and better economic opportunities in rural areas.

Migration Trends Over the Years

The migration rate in India has decreased from 37.6 per cent in 2011 to 28.9 per cent in 2023. The number of workers migrating for economic reasons has fallen to 5 million, representing only 6.7 per cent of the workforce. This is a notable drop from 8.2 per cent in 1991 and 2001, and 9.3 per cent in 2011. The workforce has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8 per cent, while migration decreased at -1 per cent.

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Factors Influencing Migration Decline

The study suggests that improved government services, such as education and health, along with better infrastructure and connectivity, have contributed to the decline in migration. However, the reality of this assertion is questionable, as data shows a decrease in labour movement despite these improvements.

Evidence from Transport Data

Using railway ticket data, the report marks a 6.7 per cent decline in post-pandemic migration during peak months. Additionally, bus travel has seen a 16 per cent decline since FY11. The number of non-suburban railway passengers has also decreased, indicating a contraction in economic migration.

Urban-Rural Remittance Patterns

The report analyses savings account to current account (SA/CA) ratios to assess urban-rural remittances. Higher SA/CA ratios indicate areas with outbound migration, while lower ratios reflect high economic activity. Major cities like Mumbai and Delhi have lower ratios, suggesting greater economic activity compared to rural areas like Bihar, which has a high ratio of 10.14.

Rural Infrastructure and Migration

The claim that rural electrification has reduced migration is debated. Historical data shows minimal increases in electrification since FY01. The pace of rural housing construction under the PM Awaas Yojna-Gramin has also been modest, suggesting that improved infrastructure has not impacted migration trends.

Economic Slowdown and Migration

The report indicates that the decline in migration reflects a rising ruralisation trend rather than urbanisation. The dependence on agriculture has increased, leading to disguised unemployment and flat rural wages. The slowdown in economic activities and rising automation have contributed to this trend.

1. The EAC-PM is a key advisory body for India’s economic policy.
2. Bihar’s high SA/CA ratio indicates lower economic activity.
3. The PM Awaas Yojna-Gramin aimed to improve rural housing.
4. The contraction in migration has resulted in rural labour oversupply.
5. Urbanisation previously drove migration during India’s economic liberalisation.
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Implications for Future Policies

The contraction in migration suggests a need for policies that support rural incomes through fiscal measures or employment-generating programmes. The stagnation in worker movement across various transport modes indicates a broader economic challenge that requires targeted interventions to stimulate growth and migration.

2023 Deadliest Year for Migrants: UN-IOM

 he year 2023 has been the deadliest year on record for migrants, with at least 8,565 deaths documented by the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Missing Migrants Project. This tragic figure represents a 20 percent increase compared to 2022, underscoring the urgent need for action to prevent further loss of life.

Remembering the Lives Lost

As the Missing Migrants Project marks its tenth year, IOM Deputy Director General Ugochi Daniels emphasized the importance of remembering the lives lost and the impact on families and communities. The alarming figures serve as a reminder of the need for greater action to ensure safe migration for all.

Data on Migrant Deaths 2014-2023

The total number of migrant deaths in 2023 surpassed the previous record year of 2016, which saw 8,084 deaths. Since the inception of the Missing Migrants Project in 2014, slightly more than half of the deaths were a result of drowning, with nine percent caused by vehicle accidents and seven percent by violence.

Deadliest Migration Routes

The Mediterranean crossing remains the deadliest route for migrants on record, with at least 3,129 deaths and disappearances in 2023, the highest death toll in the region since 2017. Unprecedented numbers of migrant deaths were also recorded across Africa (1,866) and Asia (2,138), with most deaths in Africa occurring in the Sahara Desert and the sea route to the Canary Islands, and hundreds of deaths of Afghan and Rohingya refugees recorded in Asia.

Challenges in Data Collection

Since its establishment in 2014, the Missing Migrants Project has documented more than 63,000 cases worldwide. However, the true figure is estimated to be much higher due to challenges in data collection, particularly in remote locations and on maritime routes where boats may disappear without a trace.

Importance of the Missing Migrants Project

The Missing Migrants Project serves as the sole indicator measuring the level of ‘safety’ of migration in the Sustainable Development Goals and the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. Its upcoming report will provide detailed analysis of missing migrants data from 2023 and key facts and figures over the last ten years.

About IOM

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is the principal United Nations Related Organization working in the field of migration. Established in 1951, IOM is the leading intergovernmental organization thta works closely with governmental, intergovernmental and non-governmental partners. With 175 member states, a further 8 states holding observer status and offices in 171 countries, IOM is dedicated to promoting humane and orderly migration for the benefit of all. It does so by providing services and advice to governments and migrants.

Concern over north Indian workers in Tamil Nadu: What the numbers say about India’s migrants

 

A possible exodus of migrant workers from Tamil Nadu has raised concern after videos showed purported attacks on Hindi-speaking men. Here’s what is known about India’s inter-state migration numbers.

Manufacturers in Tamil Nadu have expressed concern over the possibility of North Indian workers leaving the state after videos — rejected as fake by the government — purportedly showing Hindi-speaking men being assaulted, created panic among migrants. Almost a million migrants are estimated to work in Tamil Nadu, and industry bodies fear the state’s industrial and manufacturing sector would be severely impacted by an exodus. The large scale reverse migration of workers to their home states during the Covid-19 lockdown three years ago had seriously disrupted economic activity.

The government data on migration within the country is not comprehensive and, in many cases, old. The 2011 census reported the number of internal migrants in India at 45.36 crore, making up 37% of the country’s population. This number included both inter-state migrants and migrants within each state. The annual net migrant flows amounted to about 1 per cent of the working age population.

As per the 2011 census, India’s workforce was 48.2 crore strong. This figure is estimated to have exceeded 50 crore in 2016 — the Economic Survey that year pegged the size of the migrant workforce at roughly 20 per cent of the population, or more than 10 crore individuals.

District-wise migration data in the Economic Survey for 2016-17 showed that the highest influx of migrants within the country was in city-districts such as Gurugram, Delhi, and Mumbai; along with Gautam Budh Nagar (Uttar Pradesh); Indore and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh); Bengaluru (Karnataka); and Thiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Erode, and Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu).

The highest outward movement of migrant workers was from Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Moradabad, Rampur, Kaushambi, Faizabad, and 33 other districts of Uttar Pradesh; Uttarkashi, Chamoli, Rudra Prayag, Tehri Garhwal, Pauri Garhwal, Pithoragarh, Bageshwar, Almora, and Champawat in Uttarakhand; Churu, Jhunjhunu, and Pali in Rajasthan; Darbhanga, Gopalganj, Siwan, Saran, Sheikhpura, Bhojpur, Buxar, and Jehanabad in Bihar; Dhanbad, Lohardaga, and Gumla in Jharkhand; and Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg in Maharashtra.

As per the Report of the Working Group on Migration, 2017 under the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, 17 districts accounted for the top 25% of India’s total male out-migration. Ten of these districts are in UP, six in Bihar, and one in Odisha. (See map above)

“Relatively less developed states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have high net out-migration. Relatively more developed states take positive CMM (Cohort-based Migration Metric) values reflecting net immigration: Goa, Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka. The largest recipient was the Delhi region, which accounted for more than half of migration in 2015-16, while Uttar Pradesh and Bihar taken together account for half of total out-migrants. Maharashtra, Goa and Tamil Nadu had major net in-migration, while Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh had major net out-migration,” the Economic Survey said.

More recent numbers

A report, ‘Migration in India 2020-21’, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation in June 2022 had collated some numbers for temporary visitors and migrants. As per the report, 0.7 per cent of the country’s population was recorded as a ‘temporary visitor’ across households during the July 2020-June 2021 period after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020.

While temporary visitors were defined as those who arrived in households after March 2020 and stayed continuously for a period of 15 days or more but less than 6 months, ‘migrants’ were defined as those for whom the last usual place of residence any time in the past is different from the present place of enumeration.

Over 84 per cent of these 0.7 per cent temporary visitors moved places for reasons linked to the pandemic, ranging from loss of job/ closure of unit/ lack of employment opportunities, migration of earning member, closure of educational institutions and health-related reasons, and meeting family/ relatives/ friends, it showed.

A total 48.9 per cent of temporary visitors moved to meet family/ relatives/ friends between July 2020 and June 2021, while 15.7 per cent of such temporary visitors moved for health-related reasons, and 12.2 per cent due to loss of job/ closure of unit/ lack of employment opportunities.

The all-India migration rate was 28.9 per cent for July 2020-June 2021, with a 26.5 per cent migration rate in rural areas and 34.9 per cent in urban areas.

Females recorded a higher share of migration rate of 47.9 per cent; 48 per cent in rural and 47.8 per cent in urban areas. Migration rate for males was 10.7 per cent, with 5.9 per cent in rural and 22.5 per cent in urban areas.

Among females, the highest level of migration rate was seen at 86.8 per cent for marriage, while 49.6 per cent of the males migrated in search of employment, to take up better employment/ business/ proximity to place of work, or loss of job/ closure of unit/ lack of employment opportunities.

Written by Aanchal Magazine

Source: Indian Express, 7/03/23