Lives lost to terrorism at all-time high

Globally, from 2013 to 2014 the number of deaths due to terrorism rose by 80%, reaching the highest level ever recorded at 32,658, according to the third edition of the Global Terrorism Index

Two groups responsible for half the deaths

Boko Haram, which pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State as the group’s West Africa Province in March 2015, has become the world’s deadliest terrorist group, causing 6,644 deaths compared to IS’s 6,073.

IS and Boko Haram are now jointly responsible for 51% of all global fatalities from claimed terrorist attacks.

Numbers tell the story

4,37,000	People are victims of homicide each year, which is over 13 times more than the number of victims of terrorism.
70%	Of all deaths over the past 10 years were caused by lone wolf attackers who are the main perpetrators of terrorist activity in the West.
80%	Of lone wolf deaths were by political extremists, nationalists, racial and religious supremacists. Islamic fundamentalism was not the main driver of terrorism in Western countries.
$52.9 bn	Global economic cost of terrorism
11	Countries with over 500 terrorism deaths (120% rise)
300%	Rise in fatalities in Nigeria.
172%	Battlefield deaths IS was involved in.

Worst-affected countries (Global Rank and Fatalities)

Source: The Hindu, 24-11-2015 

Jul 25 2015 : The Economic Times (Delhi)

Chhattisgarh & Manipur Red Marks on Internal Security Report Card





Chhattisgarh and Manipur mar the otherwise encouraging picture presented by the home ministry's six-month report card on internal security this year. The absconding SIMI module said to be behind a series of small strikes is another worry for the security forces, even as terrorist strikes in J&K and Maoist affected states saw a decline in the first half of 2015, reports Aman Sharma

On the face of it, the data on the first half of the year presents quite a rosy pic ture. All three theatres of terrorism Jammu & Kashmir, 10 Left-wing extremism affected states and the seven states in the Northeast ­ saw a dip in violence.No terrorist attack was reported from the hinterland either. But the home ministry's six-month report card on internal security does have some worrying red marks.Chhattisgarh, Manipur and Nagaland are emerging as areas of concern for the Centre, along with the absconding group of terrorists belonging to the proscribed Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI).The group, which fled from a Madhya Pradesh jail 18 months ago, is believed to be behind the minor blasts in Pune, Bengaluru, Roorkee, Rewari and Bijnore in 2014 and 2013. The NIA on Friday declared a reward of Rs 10 lakh each on the 4 absconding SIMI men.WHY IS PRIME MINISTER SILENT?
In the six months to June, the number of incidents in BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh was equal to 80% of that in the entire 2014 while arrests of Maoists fell by half compared to the year-ago period.
Internal security expert and former chief of BSF and UP Police Prakash Singh said he has been hearing of new security policies being drawn up by the Narendra Modi government but is still to see their implementation on the ground.
“Why has the PM, who has gone into depth into various issues, not spoken on the Naxal issue or elucidated the government's policy to tackle it.Chhattisgarh is a major concern...now there is a BJP government both in the state and at Centre. Still the violence is up. Why is it so?“ Singh asked.
Chhattisgarh stands out among states affected by Left-wing extremism where total number of casualties of civilians and security forces has fallen, largely because the once worstaffected state of Jharkhand is showing major improvement under a new BJP government.
Bihar has also shown an improvement from its inglorious record in 2013, but the home ministry fears that violence may escalate in the run-up to the assembly elections, especially since it believes the state government is going soft on the Maoists owing to their influence over a vote bank.
As per the ministry's internal assessments, Maoists are spreading their base to new territories in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, besides renewing efforts to rejuvenate the CPI (Maoist) in West Bengal, which has witnessed no Maoist violence in the past two years since the Mamata Banerjee government wiped out terrorists from Jangalmahal and Maoist leader Kishenji was killed.“If Mamata Banerjee can do it and Naveen Patnaik can control Maoists in Odisha, why not Chhattisgarh?“ asked Singh.
The data shows that the security situation did deteriorate in 2014 in J&K as well as the Northeast since the Modi government took charge in May.J&K, for the first time in a decade, bucked the trend of decreasing violence levels to register 87% increase in civilian fatalities and 31% increase in incidents compared to that in the previous year. And even as J&K has seen an improvement in the security situation since the PDP-BJP government took charge in March this year, a spectre of increasing recruitment of educated Kashmiri youth in terror outfits has raised its head.
“We are working a delusion in Kashmir by underestimating the ISIS influence. ISIS is gradually nibbling in Kashmir and the government should no longer have an ostrich policy in this regard. We are ignoring this threat,“ said Singh.
A home ministry note, accessed by ET, citing reasons for the increasing recruitment points to “thrust of the tanzeems to recruit local youth from Kashmir, influence of global jihadi organisations like ISIS, lack of employment opportunities, lack of credibility of mainstream political leaders, hanging of Afzal Guru, mass contact programmes of separatists and more use of social media by anti-national elements“.
The Northeast is a picture in contrast. While Manipur and Nagaland have reported major attacks on the security forces including on Army contingents, the worst-affected state of Assam has achieved a huge turnaround from 2014, when a record 168 civilians were killed in strikes, mainly by NDFB (S). Only four civilians have been reported killed in Assam this year and terror incidents have taken a nosedive. But the Northeast theatre has opened up in Manipur and Nagaland with NSCN (K) abrogating the ceasefire and the Centre in a bind now on whether to ban the group or resume the ceasefire with it.
The Modi government has been fortunate in that it has not faced any major terror strike in the hinterland, a recurring phenomenon under its predecessor UPA thanks to the Indian Mujahideen terrorist group whose key leaders were later arrested. But an absconding SIMI group of terrorists led by Mohammed Aijajuddin which escaped from MP's Kandwa jail on October 1, 2013 has become a major worry for the government.
The NIA suspects this group is behind the Chennai CST blast in May 2014 that left one person dead and blast near a temple in Pune last July. NIA has determined that the group was noticed last in Bijnore in Uttar Pradesh in late 2013 when an accidental explosion took place in a house where they were producing explosives but the group managed to escape safely. After the Bijnore incident, the group tried to plant a bomb in a train at Rewari railway station on September 25, 2014 to cause an incendiary effect in the running train.Aijajuddin was later identified by a co-passenger to whom he had handed over a bag containing an improvised explosive device, NIA said.
The NIA also said that this group planted a bomb near a place of meeting on December 6, 2014 at Roorkee where BJP MLA Sangeet Som was to be present with VHP and Bajrang Dal activists. The SIMI group had a motive to take revenge of the Muzaffarnagar communal riots from Som, who has been accused of instigating the riots in 2013, NIA said. The same group is suspected to be involved in the Bengaluru blast on December 28, 2014 in which one person was killed.
A strike by the group on a right-wing leader like Som could well trigger a communal backlash that this government would like to best avoid.

Communal clashes up 24% in Jan-May 2015

New Delhi TIMES NEWS NETWORK





Up To 287 From 232 In Same Period Last Yr

Communal violence in India has registered a jump with incidents rising by 24% and related deaths too up by 65% in the first five months of 2015 as compared to the corresponding period of last year, when the UPA government was in the saddle.As per latest data collated by the Union home ministry , 287 communal incidents were reported from across the country this year until May 31, as compared to 232 over the same period in 2014.
Deaths due to communal clashes during January-May 2015 rose to 43 from 26 and the number of injured too were higher at 961 from 701 in the first five months of last year.
The states that reportedly accounted for a major portion of the increase in communal clashes were Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Maha rashtra and West Bengal.
This is for the first time that data has reflected negatively on the state of communal harmony under the Modi government.
Earlier, a comparison of the annual data for the year 2014 and 2013 had shown a fall in incidents to 644 from 823 respectively .
Deaths in 2014 too dipped to 95 from 133 and injured were fewer at 1961 as compared to 2,269 in 2013.
Many argued that the lower communal violence in 2014 as compared to 2013 was not really a verdict on the effectiveness of Modi government to control riots, considering that UPA was in power until mid-May 2014.

What makes India less peaceful than 142 other countries

India has been relegated to the 143rd place in the 2015 Global Peace Index, down from 140 in 2014.

The number of internal conflicts and possession of nuclear and heavy weapons are among the parameters that have weighed heavily in pulling down India's ranking in the 2015 Global Peace Index to the 143rd position among 162 nations ranked.

The Index, which incorporates a number of parameters to measure the "texture of peace", is brought out annually by the Institute of Economics and Peace.

It "is a composite index comprised of 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators that gauge the level of peace in 162 countries. These indicators can be grouped into three broad themes: the level of safety and security in a society, the number of international and domestic conflicts and the degree of militarisation." The scores for India on these 3 counts are 2.4, 2.8 and 2.3 respectively out of 5 each.

The 2015 report says that Middle East and North Africa has overtaken South Asia as the most violent region in the world compared the previous year.

India scores poorly in terms of the conflict factor, which takes into account the number and duration of conflicts fought within a country (the lower the score the better the position). This includes civil, interstate, one-sided and non-state conflicts. The other parameter has to do with the number of nuclear and heavy weapons a country possesses.

Internal conflicts fought 5.0	Nuclear and heavy weapons 5.0	Access to weapons 4.0
Perceptions of criminality 4.0	Terrorism impact 4.0	Political terror 4.0

Among the various other parameters in which India fares poorly is terrorism impact, which is based the number of deaths, injuries and property damage caused by terrorism during the past five years. Another factor is perceptions of criminality which is a qualitative assessment of the level of perceived criminality in society.

Globally, deaths caused by terrorism increased by 61 per cent in 2013, pointing to its unabated growth over the last decade. Most of the deaths occurred in five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. France, Denmark and Australia were the new countries which witnessed acts of terrorism.

Another bunch of parameters on which India scores three also include two related to internal conflict and one which has to do with violent demonstrations.

Intensity of internal conflict 3.0	Violent demonstrations 3.0	Violent crime 3.0
Neighbouring countries relations 3.0	Deaths from internal conflict 3.0

India scores relatively better on the remaining parameters scoring 2 or below; with homicide and deaths from external conflict getting scores at the higher end.

Incarceration 1.1	Political instability 1.1	Weapons imports 1.0
Military expenditure 1.6	Armed services personnel 1.0	UN peacekeeping funding 1.2
Weapons exports 1.0	Displaced people 1.0	External conflicts fought 1.0
Deaths from external conflict 2	Security officers and police 1.7	Homicide 2.0

In South Asia the position of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan deteriorated during the year while that of Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh improved. Bhutan tops the list with a rank of 18, Nepal comes next with a rank of 62 followed by Bangladesh, ranked 84. Afghanistan is second from the bottom at rank 160 and Pakistan is ranked 154.

There is also a price to pay for conflict and the lack of peace. In India's case the report estimates the economic costs at 341,733,390,956 US dollars.

So, which is the most peacful country in the world? Iceland. And it is Europe that emerges as the most peacful region in the world.

Keywords: peace index, conflict

Feb 12 2015 : The Times of India (Delhi)

Year of living dangerously: India more unsafe than Syria in 2014

Deeptiman Tiwary

New Delhi:





Far away from the war zones of Syria and Afghanistan, it's in India where more bombs are exploding. In 2014, India witnessed 190 IED explosions, putting it just behind Pakistan and Iraq in the list of countries worst affected by bomb blasts.And while VIPs continue to clamour for security , they make only 3% of the target as compared to the general public, which accounts for 54% of the targets. Maoists continue to remain the biggest enemy of the state, executing more than 50% of the blasts, followed by insurgents in the Northeast, accounting for 30% of the explosions.
According to latest data released by National Bomb Data Centre (NBDC), Pakistan witnessed the maximum number of blasts in the world last year with 313 explosions, followed by Iraq which suffered 246 blasts. Af ghanistan with 129 blasts is far behind India. Syria, which has seen pitched battles between ISIS, Kurdish Peshmargas and Nato forces, has seen only 32 blasts.
These five countries together account for almost 85% of the 1,127 blasts across the world.
India, however, has been able to reduce the number of explosions and casualties in 2014. While 2013 saw 99 casu alties in 212 explosions, 75 people lost their lives in 2014.This is in keeping with the trend across the world.
What's worrying is that in 92% of explosions in India high explosives were used, recording an increase of four percentage points over 2013. This indicates the ease with which anti-national elements are able to lay their hands on explosives and electronic detonators. NSG chief JN Choudhu ry blamed it on `less-than satisfactory' control over sale and stocking of explo sives and detonators. “All 190 blasts in India used electron ic detonators. We see a ban on the sale of detonators de sirable, but that's not possi ble. There needs to be some control on sale and secure storage and use of detona tors,“ Choudhry said.
He said, “It seems when licence for use of detonators is given out by district ma gistrates, it is done in a very routine manner with no monitoring of its end use.“
Internally too, India is . witnessing a geographical shift in pattern of blasts.
Jammu & Kashmir, which has witnessed a 30% drop in explosions, is no more among , the top danger areas. Ditto for Manipur which has seen a 45% drop from 66 blasts in 2013 to just 36 in 2014. Conver sely, Chhattisgarh and Jhark hand witnessed an increase of 33% and 50%, respectively , in number of explosions.

RIC Forum calls for early conclusion of Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism

Russia, India and China have called for an early conclusion of negotiations on the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism in the RIC Forum held in Beijing.

In this regard, a joint communiqué was issued by 3 nations in the 13th trilateral meeting of foreign ministers, under this forum.

India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Chinese foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian foreign Minister Sergey Levrov had participated in the meeting.

Key highlights of RIC Forum

• Condemned terrorism- Participating countries strongly condemned terrorism in all forms. They even mentioned that there can be no ideological, political, racial, ethnic or any other justification for acts of terrorism.
• Join efforts to combat terrorism- Ministers affirmed the need for all countries to join efforts in combating terrorism under the auspices of United Nations.
• Support to India- Russia and China supported India’s aspiration to play a greater role in the United Nations. They also welcomed India’s application for full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
• Economic front- All members expressed their support for the forthcoming WTO 10th Ministerial conference in December 2015, to expand their cooperation in several areas including agriculture, medical services and disaster relief.
• Other Issues- They also discussed various issues including efforts to counter the threat of use of information and communication technologies for military and terrorism purposes, preventing arms race in outer space, solution to Iranian nuclear issue, latest developments in Syria, Israel- Palestine conflict and current crisis in Ukraine.

The next trilateral meeting of the RIC Forum will be held in Russia later in 2015.

Terrorism is a common challenge for humanity: Ban Ki-moon

This is the complete transcript of an interview of United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to The Hindu and CNN-IBN in New Delhi on January 13, 2014.

Hello and welcome to this special interview as UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who is visiting India, speaks to CNN-IBN and The Hindu. I am Suhasini Haidar.

Q. Secretary General, you are here even as the world is mourning the victims of the attack in Paris. You and PM Modi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) spoke at the Vibrant Gujarat conference about global terrorism. How do you think the world can cooperate better, or has the world failed?

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon: We are deeply concerned about the increasing trend of growing terrorism, extremism and radicalisation. To address all these we have to be united, to show that nations are united and solid in addressing all this. At the same time, we have to mobilise all possible resources and strength to deter.

Unfortunately with all the technological development and communication, these terrorists are using internet and social media to propagate their hate. This is very dangerous. The United Nations has adopted a resolution on global counter-terrorism and we have set up a counter-terrorism centre on training and assistance, and the Security Council has taken a leadership role in the case of ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Levent) or Da’esh, in Iraq and Syria, the UNSC has urged the world, whoever has the capacity and resources to provide their support. If we don’t address ISIL, Da’esh and Boko Haram, and all these terror groups, we will not be able to provide sustainable development, or protect human rights and human dignity. Terrorism is a common challenge for humanity.

Q: But is there a global double standard? Because its not just ISIL or Boko Haram, or the attacks in France or Australia or Canada, but also the terrorist attacks in the subcontinent. India has sponsored an international convention of terror… is that something you would recommend?

UNSG: Member states are discussing the matter of just who are the terrorists and other issues, but at this time rather than spending time and energy on definitions, these ISIL and other groups have been doing unspeakable acts of brutality against parts of humanity. It is important that government authorities take a firm position, show solidarity domestically and regionally, and in terms of their justice system, they have to ensure that all these perpetrators should be brought to justice. At the same time it is important to have good governance and inclusive dialogue with the people so terrorists and extremist elements may not find any breeding ground on the basis of people’s grievances.

Q. The problem is that in India as I said, there is a perception of a double standard. For example, a UN designated global terrorist like the Lashkar-e-Taiba founder and Jamat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, wanted for the Mumbai attacks, was in Lahore addressing a public rally last month. He is a globally designated terrorist, and was re-designated by the UN just a few weeks ago…how is it possible without any comment from the UN?

" If we don’t address ISIL, Da’esh and Boko Haram, and all these terror groups, we will not be able to provide sustainable development, or protect human rights and human dignity."

UNSG: Well I was shocked when the Mumbai terror attacks took place and we all expected that all these terrorists would be put to justice. I sincerely hope that the Indian and Pakistani government authorities discuss this matter that all the perpetrators should be punished as terrorists, brought to trial. It is important not to allow room for terrorist groups, radical groups, armed groups to take such chances with the lapse of the justice system.

Q: But it’s not just a lapse of the justice system, simply because this is a UN designated global terrorist, under UNSC resolution 1267, addressing a public rally. Is the UN mandate being flouted, not just by the terrorist himself, but by the government?

UNSG: Yes, it is very important that the Pakistan government take necessary and corrective measures in accordance with the UNSC’s designated terrorist counter-terrorism policies.

Q: Because if the UN allows its mandate to be flouted in this manner, the UN loses its teeth when it comes to tackling terror… would you agree?

UNSG: It is important that all these resolutions and counter-terrorism measures be fully implemented by national government and government leaders must ensure they are engaged with their people so that their aspirations and grievances are addressed before this kind of radicalisation is allowed to take place.

Q: Will the UN then take note of this specific example of a designated global terrorist being allowed by the government to openly flout the UN resolution?

UNSG: Yes I have already taken note of it.

Q: The UN will celebrate its 70th year under you, it’s a big thing. At the same time, there are concerns about the efficacy of the UN, that it is too large and can’t respond to problems swiftly. Will this also be a year of stocktaking and reform?

This is a very significant anniversary… member states have worked hard for seven decades to provide peace and security, to bring people out of poverty, and also protect human rights and dignity. We do understand that we have not fully met the expectations. We are committed to shape the post-2015 millennium agenda with a set of sustainable development goals, covering economic and the whole spectrum of human life. At the same time we should do more especially on human rights so that nobody will be left behind.

" It is important that the Indian government should promote the human rights of those people with different sexual orientation. "

Q: What about India’s own role at the UN. India has long demanded a seat at the Security Council, along with other countries. Do you think that is a possibility, and could ever be a reality?

UNSG: I am aware of the aspirations of many member states including India who really want to see the UNSC reformed in a much more democratic and representative way. I think it needs the consensus view of member states. If we consider the drastic changes that have taken place in the last 70 years, it is necessary for the Security Council to adapt. The question is, the member states should be able to find the modalities to meet the aspirations of states like India.

It’s a very important issue. The general assembly has taken this up informally and I have urged them to accelerate the process, so that the Security Council can be better equipped to address all the changing peace and security issues.

Q: Many here feel that given the contribution of India to the UN, if you look at peacekeeping alone, India has contributed to 44 (out) of the 69 UN peacekeeping missions so far, yet it has been denied the stature at the Security Council high table, that it would deserve.

UNSG: India has been serving as a non-permanent member of the Security Council frequently, most recently three years ago, and India has contributed a lot. By any standard, India is a critically important member state, in terms of peace and security, we appreciate more than 8,000 peacekeepers working in many dangerous and difficult circumstances and we also appreciate the strong contribution for the democracy fund. India is the second largest contributor in the world to that. We also expect India, one of the fastest growing economies, to lead our sustainable development process and our climate change negotiation process.

Q: When you speak of the expectations from India, you have made strong statements over the past few months on issues in India, for example violence against women, and here in Delhi have opposed India’s law criminalising homosexuality in strong terms. Have you taken up these concerns with India’s leadership?

UNSG: It’s a matter of human rights. Human rights is one of the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, a pillar along with peace and security, and development. But human rights is the foremost pillar. In that regard, human rights and dignity should be respected for all the people, regardless of religion or ethnicity or gender or sexual orientation. It is important that the Indian government should promote the human rights of those people with different sexual orientation. The Indian penal codeshould decriminalise homosexuality.

As the Secretary General of the UN I have been speaking out to promote the human dignity of gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgenders.

Q: Is that something you have taken up with PM Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj?

UNSG: Yes, it is something we are continuously discussing.

Q: You were at the Vibrant Gujarat delivering an unusual message — to speak about climate change at an investment conference. Are you hopeful of a world climate change agreement at the conference in Paris this year, as U.S. Secretary of State Kerry indicated?

" Remember India is no exception… you are on the frontlines of the climate change phenomena. "

UNSG: Yes, I would like to emphasise again that sustainable development and climate change are two sides of the same coin. If you adequately address climate change, you will help green growth, and make planet earth more sustainable.

That is why the UN has for 2015 made its two top priorities sustainable development and the adoption of a climate change agreement in December this year. All this must be done in 2015, it is the most important priority for humanity. We are targeting that by 2030 we should realise a world where nobody is left behind and with this climate change agreement we can work towards it. Remember India is no exception… you are on the frontlines of the climate change phenomena.

Q: The resistance in India to a deal on climate change is that it’s all very well for developed countries to lecture India on climate change, but India still needs energy, needs to develop. India is targeting renewable energy of 100,000MW now. How do you explain it to them?

UNSG: India has a lot of challenges. First they have several hundred million in poverty. In Gujarat, I was encouraged that the way PM Modi is leading in enhancing renewable energy and 100 smart cities, these are very good policies in line with addressing climate change. I hope with these initiatives India will join the international community in moving to achieve a climate change deal.

Q: Finally, if I may ask, this is your fourth visit to India as UNSG, but you have a deeper Indian connection… your son was born here, your daughter-in-law is Indian… is that the reason you were happy to facilitate India’s long pending request for International Yoga Day?

UNSG: I am looking forward to June 21st International Yoga Day, approved by the UNGA. There are two days in a year, which are designated by an Indian initiative, one is the International Day of Non-Violence on Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday and the other is bringing health through Yoga, which is part of a sustainable world.

When your body is healthy, and your family is healthy, then the world will be healthy and prosperous.

Q: Do you practice Yoga yourself?

UNSG: It's one of my big regrets, even when I lived in India I did not learn Yoga, but this will be a good occasion to make up for that.

Well we hope to see you at the forefront of that in June. Thank you for speaking with us.

Jan 14 2015 : The Times of India (Delhi)

`Reconstruct UN to tackle new-age terror'

Subhabrata Guha

New Delhi:





The United Nations and its conflict management mechanism in the Security Council are ill-equipped with modern warfare and facing the new kind of enemy that the world has seen both in the Charlie Hebdo and Boko Haram massacres, said the head of the International Committee of Red Cross, the global body mandated to help victims of war.Yves Daccord, director general of ICRC, told TOI in an exclusive interview that the stranglehold of the Permanent Five on the Security Council made it difficult for the UN to play an effective role in the state vs terrorism war, which mostly involved non-state actors. Broadening the Security Council was necessary to make the world body more efficient, he said.
“Perhaps it's time to have a re-look at the Security Council, reconstruct the UN.It's also the time rethink about the veto rights of P5 because veto rights cannot be absolute anymore,“ he said.
He said the France and Nigeria massacres showed no one was immune anymore and governments cutting across their geographical barriers must come together to provide a solution. “India has an enormous potential and understanding of bringing communities togeth er. In this polarized world, India has lived with diversities and it's now time it should take the lead,“ he said.
He said face-to-face dialogue was the best way to deal with the hostile situations.“We have been working in Iraq since the last 30 years and managed to engage through our programs on food, water and sanitation.“
On the challenges in conflict zones, he said. “We have people being taken hostage by Islamic State. There are the state and the non-state actors who pursue their own agendas. Non-state actors have a tendency to change their be haviour when they get control. They become more pragmatic because they have to take care of people. And sometime they leave a room for humanitarian talks. And the state must govern by the basic principle of humanity .“
Not only non-state actors, humanitarian workers face pressure from governments.“We tell governments that you want to get into war, but don't forget the people, who have an enormous impact. In Syria, health and education systems have become non-existent,“ he said.
(For the full interview, log on to http:www.timesofindia.com)

Carnage in Assam

Serial attacks by armed militants from the Songbijit faction of the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB) have claimed the lives of at least 67 Adivasis (who are still fighting for tribal status), in villages in Sonitpur, Kokrajar and other districts, in a shocking recrudescence of ethnic violence. Assam, with a history of more than three decades of insurgency, has seen fewer incidents of militant violence overall during 2014 than in any recent year. Two of the major militant groups, the United Liberation Front of Asom led by Arabinda Rajkhowa and the NDFB led by Ranjan Daimary, have come to the negotiating table, though there has been only limited progress in the talks. Meanwhile, the NDFB (S), opposed to the talks, stepped up acts of extortion and abduction. Sustained operations by the security forces against it have led to the killing and arrest of several of its cadres in recent months, principally in the Bodoland Territorial Areas District along the India-Bhutan border. Significantly, the latest attacks came soon after the State’s Director General of Police revealed intelligence on expected attacks by the group, and Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi dismissed threats by the NDFB (S) of retaliation against the stepped up operations against it.

The immediate challenge before the authorities is to ensure that the killings do not lead to ethnic clashes on a wide scale that could lead to a larger conflagration. Meanwhile, the best way of stripping the NDFB (S) and any others of its ilk of the facade of the “Sovereign Boroland” cause behind which they seek to mask their criminal intent, will be for the government to address at the earliest the genuine aspirations of the Bodo people in terms of development and entitlements, that would take the people forward from their state of deprivation that stems from historical anomalies and injustices. Efforts to drive a wedge between Bodo and non-Bodo sections need to be countered effectively. Everything should be done to ensure the integration of the different strands of the population. Also, the talks being held with two organisations should be pursued with a sense of seriousness if only to demonstrate the fact that it pays to talk. Alongside such an approach, employing tactics that combine physical sweeps with the help of security forces and an effective intelligence network on the ground, the state should root out the menace of faux terror indulged in by the NDFB (S) cadres who are estimated to number less than 300 and who strike in hit-and-run mode in areas that are remote, forested and inaccessible. In this battle, the Centre should deploy and commit its security forces to aid the State — rather than indulge in any sort of a blame game.

Keywords: Assam NDFB(S) attack, NDFB(S), National Democratic Front of Bodoland, Songbijit faction, Bodo militants, Tarun gogoi, Bodoland demand

Dec 26 2014 : The Economic Times (Delhi)

THINK POST-MILLENNIUM - Reducing Conflict in the World

Bjorn Lomborg





Violence holds a huge cost for our world. Globally , the cost runs to more than 11% of the world's GDP , and for India the annual social cost of violence may reach almost $900 billion.But this is not mostly about the highly-visible violence that dominates TV and news. Civil wars and conflicts rumble far too long in far too many places like Syria and Africa, and they are devastating for those involved. Economists have measured the costs of all such conflict, from the death toll from civil wars, regular wars, terrorism along with the costs of refugees but also including the way conflicts can blight countries' economic growth for decades. Yet, their total impact, though important in specific hot spots, is globally fairly small, with a total cost of about 0.2% of global GDP .
But surprisingly , other forms of violence are likely a much greater problem and they certainly deserve more of the world's attention. This is the argument by James Fearon and Anke Hoeffler in a new research paper for the Copenhagen Consensus.
Take the stark fact that, for each civil war battlefield death, roughly nine people are murdered. If you measure the total cost, not just of homicides but assaults and the fear associated with these, the global cost runs to more than 1.4% of GDP .
But even murders are not the most important part of violence.The most devastating impact of violence comes from two areas that are often neglected, and the economic analysis shows us why we need to give them much more attention.
The first area is child abuse: across the world, many children still have a very violent upbringing. Each month, more than 15% of all children experience what the UN calls severe physical punishment. They are being slapped on the face, head and ears and 4% are even being beaten up with an implement, being hit over and over as hard as possible.This is the fate of 290 million children across the world each month, with 17 million occurring in South Asia.
The economists estimate the cost of such child assault, not just from the obvious costs of increased child welfare interventions, but also from the well-documented loss of future earnings from an assaulted child. The total global cost reaches an astounding $3.5 trillion annually . For India, the cost is estimated at $453 billion.
Violence against women is the biggest global cost; it includes female infanticide, genital mutilation and incitement for widows to commit suicide. But far bigger is the cost of intimate partner violence, including being slapped, pushed, shoved, kicked, choked, burnt on purpose and forced to sex.Over the last 12 months, this violence afflicted more than 16% of women in South Asia. The total cost of such violence against women runs to $4.4 trillion per year, or about $447 billion just for India.
The world and the UN are trying to answer the question: what kind of world do you want in 2030? The focus is to find the best targets for the world to concentrate on.
That is why my think tank, Copenhagen Consensus, has asked some of the world's top economists to look at the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits of many different proposed targets, from areas like health, food and education to the thorny question of violence.
The economists find that a target to reduce civil wars could be achieved with more active deployment of peacekeeping forces.While costly , these could help prevent future civil wars, and the analysis shows that each dollar spent could do between $2 and $7 worth of good. They also find changing alcohol laws could partially reduce assaults: in the UK such change has lowered assaults so much that the benefits outweighed cost 17 to 1.
Reducing violence against children could be helped by strengthening social services. Studies from Washington state show that home visitation programmes can reduce child abuse and hence reduce both further spending on child welfare and litigation while helping the children avoid medical, mental health and quality of life costs. For each dollar spent the benefits could reach $13-14.
We now need to start a conversation about which targets for the world we want to set.
Knowing the costs and benefits on how to reduce violence is one part of that puzzle.
The author is Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center NEXT WEEK: Energy

Nov 19 2014 : The Times of India (Delhi)

India 6th worst terror-hit country

Kounteya Sinha

London





Attacks Increased By 70% From 2012 To 2013, Toll Up From 238 To 404:

India was the sixth worst-affected country by terrorism in 2013 -the other five being war zones at present. This came out in the Global Terrorism Index 2014 report which also said that the number of deaths from terrorism increased by 61% between 2012 and 2013.There were nearly 10,000 terrorist attacks in 2013, a 44% increase from the previous year. But India witnessed a much higher increase of terrorist attacks during the same period -while terrorism increased by 70% in India from 2012 to 2013, the number of deaths increased from 238 to 404.
The report said that in India there remains significant terrorist activity including on the border between India and Pakistan.
As many as 43 different terrorist groups were found to be operational in India and were categorized into three groups: Islamists, separatists and communists. They were found to have planned and carried out attacks.
Over 80% of the deaths from terrorist incidents in 2013 were recorded in just five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. On a scale of one (low est impact of terrorism) to 10 (highest risk of terrorism) -Iraq which has emerged as the world's worst-affected country with terrorism is the only entry with a score of 10. India had a score of 7.86.
The largest year-on-year increase in deaths from terrorism was recorded between 2012 and 2013 increasing from 11,133 to 17,958. As many as 87 countries experienced a terrorist incident in 2013, slightly up from 81 in 2012. The number of countries experiencing over 50 deaths in one year hit an alltime high in 2013 at 24, five greater than the previous high of 19 countries in 2008.
About India, the Index said, “The number of attacks increased with 55 more attacks in 2013 than 2012. But the majority of terrorist attacks in India have low casualties. In 2013 around 70% of attacks were non-lethal.
“Communist terrorist groups are by far the most frequent perpetrators and the main cause of deaths in India. Three Maoist communist groups claimed responsibility for 192 deaths in 2013, which was nearly half of all deaths from terrorism in India.
“Police are overwhelmingly the biggest targets of Maoists, accounting for half of all deaths and injuries. This is mainly through armed assaults, which killed 85, and bombings and explosions, which killed 43,“ the report said.
The dispute with Pakistan over Jammu & Kashmir is the source of Islamic terrorism in India, according to the report. In 2013 three Islamist groups were responsible for around 15% of deaths in India. This includes Hizbul Mujahideen which was the only group in India to use suicide tactics in 2013.
“Islamist groups in India commonly use armed assaults targeting the police or bombings targeting private citizens. The majority of attacks occur in Hyderabad and Jammu & Kashmir,“ the report said.
Globally, four terrorist groups -al-Qaida, Boko Haram, ISIS and the Taliban were responsible for 66% of all deaths from terrorist attacks in 2013 in which the perpetrator was known.