The two nations need a push to encourage more people to live across the border
When Narendra Modi addresses Indians this week in Shanghai, there will be many newcomers in the crowd. India's diaspora in mainland China is its largest in a major East Asian economy , roughly equivalent to the Indian community in a place the size of Hong Kong. The two nations send record numbers of immigrants to the US, West Asia, Britain, Australia and Africa, but hardly across the SinoIndian border.A gradual increase in crossborder residents is changing this trend. During the economic downturn of 2008-09, Indians began to leave Beijing and Shanghai as multinational firms downsized or relocated. I would be the solitary Indian dining in an Indian restaurant in Beijing's business district as bilateral visa problems grounded executives. But they didn't stay away for long.
Milind Pant, president and COO of Yum! China in Shanghai, says he observes more young Indians on threeto six-month contracts in the elevators of the building housing his office. The largest increase in expats comprises students, traders and techies, says Mehernosh Pastakia, who has, since 1990, observed the diaspora spread beyond Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou into smaller cities.
A Pew Research Centre survey last year found only 30% Chinese and 31% Indians held favourable views about the other country .Even a modest increase in direct contact between Indians and Chinese can help improve mutual trust. Of an annual 8 lakh trips between India and China, 6 lakh are by Indians travelling to China.NRIs in China, India's largest trading partner, have increased from 25,000 a few years ago to 45,00048,000, including 13,000 students.There are now 20,000 Chinese expats in India, including 2,000 students. Their numbers dropped in 2008-10 during the financial crisis and border problems that led to India rescinding Chinese visas.
The Chinese diaspora follows the building boom financed by Beijing's state-owned enterprises and banks. A million Chinese live in Africa where Chinese FDI hit $20 billion in 2012. The 12,000-strong Chinese presence in Pakistan will increase as Beijing builds a $46-billion China-Pakistan economic corridor.
Modi's new Chinese micro-blog and day out in Shanghai are big steps to project emerging India favourably . But decades-old perceptions won't change without sustained efforts on both sides.
Many Indian professionals in China leave before they can forge lasting `guanxi' (connections).They land on short-term contracts as Indian IT companies find it challenging to hire and afford experienced, English-speaking Chinese managers and techies.In Beijing, the number of 500-600 long-term Indian residents is nearly constant.
With a few exceptions, the two nations' top universities have not built solid academic bridges.India's student strength in China is up from 8,000 in 2012 and 9,200 in 2013 to 13,000. A majority of them pursue China's low-cost medical degrees. Earlier this year, the Communication University of China in Beijing wrote to some Indian professors urging them to popularise Chinese government scholarships. It received many applications from Pakistan. It was waiting for mail from India.
Shanghai, China's financial capital, hosts diamond traders from Surat, techies, bankers and exporters who learn to substitute basmati with short and sticky Chinese rice. The professionals among them generally leave in two-three years. In towns near Shanghai, the Indian presence is limited to a handful engineers each.
China's 2010 census recorded a 6 lakh population of foreigners, with Koreans, Americans and Japanese comprising the largest categories.Indians are a niche group even in friendlier East Asian nations: 10,500 in South Korea, 23,211 in Japan. Life in China requires more compromises. The Internet is restricted. There are over 60 Indian restaurants, but vegetarian meals are rarely available. Those who can't grasp Mandarin feel lost.
India and China are $70 billion trade partners. But the number of 100 Chinese companies in India and 150-odd Indian companies in China have remained constant.But the two proposed industrial parks for Chinese manufacturing in Maharashtra and Gujarat can lead to meaningful engagement.
Further growth in interactions between Indian and Chinese professionals depends on long-term improvements in FDI, visa procedures and the business climate on both sides. Encouraging tourist travel with e-visas may seem simpler. Modi may win over NRIs, but China's 100 million outbound tourists are not easily convinced that India is clean and safe for women.