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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Barack Obama, the professor

His greatness was that he appeared above politics. In retrospect, that was also his weakness.

Barack Obama’s last address as president was, as his speeches often were, a master class in democratic values and sheer decency: It pointed out the dangers to democracy posed by intolerance, racial division, inequality, aggressive political posturing and an obtuseness towards confronting the facts. It was curiously paradoxical. On the one hand, it affirmed great faith in democracy, reiterated a basic trust that democracy requires. On the other hand, Obama was pointed in his criticism of the electorate. “We sit back and blame the leaders we elect, without examining our role in electing them.” It says something about Obama’s legacy that a poignant call on behalf of democracy should have a touch of admonition about it.
Few politicians in history can match Obama’s sense of occasion, exemplary personal conduct, eloquence, moral delicacy and high-mindedness. The reassuring calm, the complete absence of rancour, scandal, bitterness and the extraordinary intelligence that characterised his presidency have few precedents. He may have made mistakes, but he never appeared small; he wielded power but with a keen sense of its moral paradoxes. In one word, Obama was a class act of the like we rarely see in politics.
While Obama still remains personally popular, it is difficult not to wonder and express regret at the deep paradoxes at the heart of his presidency. His achievements are considerable. It is often said of politicians that a true measure of their legacy emerges not in years, but in decades. Nevertheless, the sheer contrast between the man and the country he hands over to Donald Trump begs unpacking. How could a presidency so above partisanship leave such a bitterly divided country? How could the promise of a post-racial America, always a tall order, unleash a deeper racist politics? How did the politics of hope convert so quickly into a politics of fear? And how did the politics of reason slip into atavism on his watch? How did the achievement of saving the American economy translate into despondency about its future? How could Obama prepare the ground for Trump? These are large questions that cannot be unpacked in a column. They require a deep engagement with the economic and social forces shaping the world. But they also raise interesting questions about Obama’s political style, and his quest for objectivity. His greatness was that he appeared above politics; in retrospect that was also a weakness.
The most persistent criticism of Obama was that he was always “professorial.” The idea of a politics that could rise above partisanship, a voice of reconciliation that could see the warring parties from on high and grasp the truth in each position, had always an element of fantasy to it. It underestimated the underlying rancour and division that already characterised society. For an alarmingly significantsection, Obama’s election was itself an affront; his call for bipartisanship was never going to be reciprocated. The fundamental challenge of politics is that in the final analysis your opponents have no incentive to create the conditions under which you succeed. The claim of being above partisanship infuriates partisans of both sides even more; to them it seems to express moral contempt for the ordinary drivers of politics. Obama was a metaphysical conservative. To those impatient for radical change, he was disappointing: While he saved the economy with a deft hand, many would argue he did not even attempt the big structural reforms that would make America less class divided. The cruder version of this charge is that he remained, in the final analysis, besotted to the same belief in finance and globalisation that had produced the crisis in the first place. But in Obama’s case, the caution seemed to express a deeper sensibility; the sense that the panacea radical change promised could turn out to be much more uncertain and fraught.
Obama always displayed a keen sense of the limits of our ability to shape the world. It might be easy to overstate the importance of a fragment Obama wrote on T.S. Eliot as a young man. But the literary critic, Edward Mendelson’s gloss on that fragment does seem to get Obama right. Mendelson wrote, “Eliot’s conservatism is instead a tragic, fatalistic vision of a world that cannot be reformed in the way that liberalism hopes to reform it; it is a fallen world that can never repair itself, that can never repair itself, but needs to be redeemed.” Obama, in that fragment, seems to express sympathy with elements of this fatalism. In fact, fatalism seems to be an almost necessary condition for achieving the kind of objectivity and self-clarity Obama achieved. But it also predisposed him to incrementalism. His resounding cry “Yes, we can” carried the whisper “so long as we are cautious.” Obama’s studied reticence on the question of race always infuriated critics. As Cornel West, a bitter critic on the Left, in what might be a summation of Obama’s political style once put it, “Obama was above the fray, he was never in the fray.” This has to be the most difficult of political questions for Obama: Given the depth of racial animosity, it is hard to second guess whether more outspokenness would have achieved more or less, politically. But his cool objectivity seemed something of an affront to all sides. To those suffering it sublimated oppression into analysis; to racists it seemed infuriating because it did not take the bait. The structure of the problem remained intact.
The sense of the tragic complexities of power pervaded Obama’s thinking of international relations. His ascent to office was marked by the expectation that he would exemplify the limits of power: Limiting the hubris of what America could achieve in the world, limiting executive power, and restoring America’s credibilityin the conduct of war. As he had indicated in his Nobel address, he had something of the same sense of fatalism and tragedy about international politics that Reinhold Niebuhr did: The attempts to limit power also have their limitations. He got criticised for not trying hard enough on Guantanamo and use of executive power more generally. His misjudgements on Russia, Libya, and Syria left a deeply fraught legacy. It has also left America and the world confused about how much of the power of the American example does indeed depend on its exercise of power. Obama’s humility was to understand, almost professorially, the limits of what leaders can do. It was a philosophy of anti-hubris. It combined high moral clarity with a pessimism about instruments of change. That combination could not withstand an age clamouring for more, and willing to risk hubris. A great president also left a great moral storm. Whether it is because America did not deserve him or he was not up to the task, history will decide.
The writer is president, CPR Delhi and contributing editor, ‘The Indian Express’
 
Source: Indian Express, 17/01/2017

Serious job losses are taking place’ 

The truth may ultimately prevail about demonetisation, but the government might be able to maintain the loyalty of a large part of the public for a long time, says Amartya Sen

More than two months after the demonetisation, Nobel Laureate and economist Amartya Sen says that any proper “economic reasoning could not have sensibly led to such a ham-handed policy.” He predicts that the demonetisation will hit the economy quite drastically. In an interview with Suvojit Bagchi at his home in Santiniketan, which he visits every winter, Professor Sen spoke about the motives and impact of the move.

We’ve seen the primary impact of the demonetisation: long queues outside banks and shortage of cash. Now we are seeing the secondary impact, which is on the informal sector. Potato sowing in West Bengal is affected and some other businesses are collapsing. What could be the impact of all this?

What you are calling “the secondary impact” shouldn’t at all be surprising since the availability of money plays a very big part in facilitating business and trade. Particularly for small businesses (farming, for example), money is often used in the form of cash. In the long run, cashless transactions can perhaps be made into routine practice, through organisation and training, but that would take time. To act on the presumption of instant learning and institutionalisation is to place the hard-earned interests of many people without any connection to ‘black money’ in serious risk.Most of what we now call cash is actually promissory notes, the emergence of which reflected a big advance over relying only on precious metals (like gold and silver). Promissory notes played a significant part in building up the financial backbone of industrial Europe. If in the 18th or 19th century, Britain had been demonetised suddenly, it would have devastated British industrial progress.
Given the underdevelopment of electronic accounts and transactions, big parts of the economy are similarly vulnerable. For many, especially among the poor, making efficient and correct use of electronic payments and receipts would remain difficult to master and the possibility of losing one’s money would be hard to avoid, especially given the shortage of infrastructure and the slowness of learning in using cashless transactions. The perplexing question is why some people — those who gave us demonetisation — did not foresee that this would happen and even more perplexing is how the promoters of demonetisation can be so blind even now to the overwhelming evidence of a crisis.

 Why has over 85 per cent of cash suddenly been taken out of circulation?

The Government of India seems to have been caught in a confusion of purposes. Demonetisation has been seen both as a way of catching and eliminating ‘black money’, and as a way of moving towards a ‘cashless economy’. The former has gradually been replaced in the rhetoric of the government by the latter, which is not surprising as demonetisation can make only a very small contribution — at a huge social cost — to the ‘black money problem’. This is because only a very small proportion of black money (it is estimated to be 6 per cent or so, certainly less than 10 per cent) is in cash. Most black money is in the form of precious metals and other assets in foreign accounts. The inconvenience and loss imposed with no black money (workers earning wages; small businesses doing trade or production; people, even housewives, keeping small savings) are much more acute than any benefit from catching relatively small amounts of black money.
 There are going to be huge job losses too, and the recent reports by All India Manufacturers’ Organisation are beginning to show that serious job losses are already happening as a result of what London’s Financial Times has called “a dramatic drop in business in the 34 days since Narendra Modi… announced his plan to scrap 86 per cent of its banknotes.”
The unrealistic governmental expectation that the ‘black money problem’ can be solved, or largely removed, by demonetisation soon became clear even to the government. Then the initially trumpeted objective of getting rid of black money through demonetisation was suddenly changed into a very different objective — to leap rapidly into a cashless society. However, for such a structural change, much more time is needed, and the draconian measures — penalties installed in the hope of catching black money — are particularly ill-suited. The result has been a combination of chaos and widespread suffering rather than an orderly transition to a cashless society.

Do you think there are political reasons behind the demonetisation move? The elections are coming up, so that may have been one?

I don’t really know. Since economic reasoning could not have sensibly led to such a ham-handed policy, it is natural for people to suspect an explanation in terms of political advantages that the ruling parties were expecting to get. It has certainly given, at least for the time being, a great political image to the Prime Minister of being a huge fighter against corruption, even though the policy has done very

These 50 days of hardship will not take black assets out of the economy?

How could it? Only a very small proportion of black money (around 6 per cent, certainly less than 10 per cent) is in cash. How can cleaning up of 10 per cent, at most, of black money clean it all up? Even that 10 per cent is a huge overestimate, since the ‘black money dealers’ are much more skilled in overcoming official barriers than are normal honest people who are simply harassed — or made to lose their money — because of their lack of specialised skill in avoiding transaction barriers.

If it is a bad policy, why do you think there haven’t been protests against demonetisation yet?

The government’s publicity surrounding this inept move has been very strong. People have been told again and again that if you are against demonetisation, you must be in favour of black money. This is a ridiculous analysis, but a readily exploitable political slogan. The persistent crisis created by demonetisation is only slowly becoming clear in terms of hard statistics as well as in public perception.
The false perception of nobility and success can be held up through endless repetition of distorted ‘facts’ and propaganda. The truth may ultimately prevail, but the government might be able to maintain the loyalty of a large part of the public for a long time, certainly until after the U.P. elections.
It is worth remembering that the notorious Irish famines in the 1840s did not immediately cause serious public agitation against the government run from London. That happened only later — much later — but when it did happen, the understanding of blame had a huge long-run impact, making the Irish people deeply suspicious of everything that the government in London did.

Source: The Hindu, 17-01-2017

Vagaries of the job market 

The mismatch between the number of people who annually reach working age and the availability of jobs has been a matter of constant concern globally during the better part of the period since the global financial crisis of the last decade. The International Labour Organisation’s latest forecast that a few more millions are set to join the pool of the jobless during this year and the next, is in line with its own previous estimates. In any case, with the growth in global gross domestic product registering a six-year low in 2016, expectations of generation of new jobs were always going to be low. But a no-less-serious concern in the ‘World Employment and Social Outlook 2017’ pertains to the stubborn challenge of reducing the extent of vulnerability that currently affects about 42 per cent of the total working population. This concern refers to lack of access to contributory social protection schemes among the self-employed and allied categories, unlike their counterparts in the wage-earning and salaried classes. The former segment accounts for nearly 50 per cent of workers in the emerging economies and 80 per cent in developing countries. The hardships faced by these 1.4 billion working people will become more apparent when seen in the backdrop of either the absence of strong welfare legislation or its effective enforcement in a majority of these countries. It is no surprise that besides Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia has been the most affected by such volatile conditions.
To be sure, the overall share of these vulnerable workers dropped from 46 per cent of total employment in 2015 to 42 per cent in 2016. But the latest report projects only a mere 0.2 percentage point rate of reduction through 2017-18. In comparison, it says the proportion of the population in jobs characterised by vulnerability declined by an average annual rate of 0.5 percentage points in the previous decade. As a result of the relatively slow reversal rates in more recent years, these numbers are projected to increase globally by 11 million a year. The other implication of an increase in the number of people facing vulnerable working conditions is the real danger this poses of a slowdown in reducing the incidence of working poverty. It is this celebrated rise in income levels in the lowest rungs of the population that lent the current phase of globalisation the social and political legitimacy, a phase that has otherwise posed the risks of economic dislocation and unprecedented mass migration. The challenge for policymakers worldwide is to ensure that incomes do not fall below the levels of basic subsistence as the world marches towards the poverty reduction targets under the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Source: The Hindu, 17-01-2017

 

IBPS PO, Clerk, RRB officer, assistant exams 2017-18 tentative calendar issued

 

The Institute of Banking Personnel Selection (IBPS) on Monday issued tentative calendar for online Common Written Examination (CWE) for Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) and Public Sector Banks (PSBs) in 2017-18 on its official website.
The Preliminary examination for CWE RRB-VI officer scale I and office assistants will be tentatively held on September 9, 10, 16, 17, 23 and 24, 2017. The single examination for officer scale II and III will be held on November 5, 2017. The main examination for officer scale I will be held on November 5 and office assistants will be on November 12, 2017.
The preliminary examination for probationary officers (PO)/management trainee posts in various public sector banks (CWE PO/MT-VII) will be held on October 7, 8, 14 and 15, 2017, while the main examination will be held on November 26, 2017.

The preliminary examination for recruitment of clerks (CWE CLERK-VII) will held on December 2, 3, 9 and 10, 2017, while the main examination will be held on January 21, 2018.
The IBPS will hold two-tier examination for recruitment of specialist officers from CWE-VII onwards. The candidates will have to appear in preliminary examination. The shortlisted candidates will have to take the main examination. The main examination will have questions only from professional knowledge. The details about preliminary and main examinations will be provided on IBPS official website in due course. The marks obtained in the preliminary examination will not be considered while preparing the final merit list and the marks obtained in the main examination will only be considered for short listing candidates for interview.
The preliminary examination for specialist officers (CWE SPL-VII) will be conducted on December 30 and 31, 2017, while the main examination will be held on January 28, 2018.
Note: The registration process will be through online mode only and there will be a single registration for both preliminary and main examination, wherever applicable.

Source: Hindustan Times, 16-01-2017

A Positive Reminder



A verse in the Quran reminds everyone that no one is so powerful that they can prevent the onset of death, “Every soul shall taste death“ (3:185). However powerful a person might be, in comparison to death, every hero becomes a zero. Death gives one this message, `Even if you are a super-achiever, when it comes to death, there is no exception at all.' Death is the greatest reminder, which makes every person a man `cut-to-size'. Ignoring the reality of death is not possible for any human being. Every death admonishes a person to live in his world with modesty .
According to a saying of the Prophet of Islam, “Remember death much, which demolishes all desires“ (al-Tirmidhi).This means that the thought of death serves to make a person a realist. It is the reality of death that helps one to come out of wishful thinking. Death makes a person distinguish between `what he is' and `what he is not'. If a person focuses on `what he is', it would bring about realism in his thinking.
On the contrary , if a person is governed by thoughts of `what he is not', he would develop an unrealistic approach to life. It is realism that makes a person a right thinker. One who is a right thinker is in a position to do successful planning for his work; no one can place obstacles in the path to his success. Remembering death is the greatest source of wisdom for any person -it guarantees that one's planning will be realistic.There is no more stronger incentive than the thought of death to keep a person active on a permanent basis.
Richest 1% in India own 58% of country's wealth: Study
Davos:
PTI


`Women Form 60% Of Lowest Paid Group'
In signs of rising income inequality , India's richest 1% now hold 58% of the country's total wealth. Worldwide, 8 billionaires alone hold about 50% of global wealth, a new study showed on Monday . The study , released by rights group Oxfam ahead of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting attended by the rich and powerful from across the world here, showed that just 57 billionaires in India now have the same wealth ($216 billion) as that of the bottom 70% population of the country .
The study said there are 84 billionaires in India, with a collective wealth of $248 billion, led by Mukesh Ambani ($22.7 billion), Dilip Shanghvi ($16.7 billion) and Azim Premji ($15 billion).The total wealth in the country stood at $3.1trillion.
In the report titled `An economy for the 99%', Oxfam said it is time to build a human economy that benefits everyone, not just the privileged few. It said that since 2015, the richest 1% has owned more wealth than the rest of the planet. “Over the next 20 years, 500 people will hand over $2.1 trillion to their heirs -a sum larger than the GDP of India, a country of 1.3 billion people,“ Oxfam said.
Over the last two decades, the richest 10% of the population in China, Indonesia, Laos, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have seen their share of income increase by more than 15%. “Due to a combination of discrimination and working in low-pay sectors, women's wages across Asia are between 70-90% of men's,“ it said.
Referring to the Global Wage Report 2016-17 of Indian Labour Organisation, the study said India suffers from huge gender pay gap and has among the worst levels of gender wage disparity -men earning more than women in similar jobs -with the gap exceeding 30%.
In India, women form 60% of the lowest paid wage labour, but only 15% of the highest wage-earners. It means that in India, women are not only poorly represented in the top bracket of wage-earners, but also experience wide gender pay gap at the bottom.
It also said that more than 40% of the 400 million women who live in rural India are involved in agriculture and related activities. However, as women are not recognised as farmers and do not own land, they have limited access to government schemes and credit, restricting their agricultural productivity .

 

Source: Times of India, 17-01-2017

Monday, January 16, 2017

Economic and Political Weekly: Table of Contents

Vol. 52, Issue No. 2, 14 Jan, 2017

Editorials

From 50 Years Ago

H T Parekh Finance Column

Commentary

Book Reviews

Insight

25 Years Of Economic Liberalisation

Special Articles

Discussion

Current Statistics

Postscript

Appointments/programmes/announcements 

Letters