Economic Survey: What is it and what to expect in 2023

 

Economic Survey 2023: Though the assessment and recommendations of the survey are not binding on the Budget, it remains the most authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the economy that is conducted from within the Union government.

On Tuesday, the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) will release the Economic Survey for the current financial year (2022-23). The survey is always presented a day before – typically January 31 since Union Budgets are scheduled for February 1 – the Finance Minister unveils the Union Budget for the next financial year (2023-24 in the present case).

What is the Economic Survey?

As the name suggests, the Economic Survey is a detailed report of the state of the national economy in the financial year that is coming to a close.

It is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) under the guidance of the CEA. Once prepared, the Survey is approved by the Finance Minister. The first Economic Survey was presented for 1950-51 and until 1964, it was presented along with the Budget. Similarly, for the longest time, the survey was presented in just one volume, with specific chapters dedicated to different key sectors of the economy – such as services, agriculture, and manufacturing – as well as key policy areas – such as fiscal developments, state of employment and inflation etc. This volume carries a detailed statistical abstract as well.

However, between 2010-11 and 2020-21, the survey was presented in two volumes. The additional volume carried the intellectual imprint of the CEA and often dealt with some of the major issues and debates facing the economy.

Last year’s survey reverted back to a single volume format, possibly because it was prepared and presented while there was a change in guard in the CEA’s office and the current CEA – V Anantha Nageswaran – took charge when the survey was released.

What is the Economic Survey’s significance?

Even though it comes just a day before the Budget, the assessment and recommendations carried in the survey are not binding on the Budget.

Still, the survey remains the most authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the economy that is conducted from within the Union government.

As such, its observations and details provide an official framework for analysing the Indian economy.

What should one look for in this year’s survey?

The Indian economy has been struggling to grow at a fast pace since the start of 2017-18. The years immediately after Covid may have registered fast growth rates but that was just a statistical illusion. Many outside economists have argued that India’s potential growth itself has fallen from 8% to 6%.

Along with a deceleration in growth, the economy has also witnessed historically high unemployment and a sharp rise in poverty and inequality during the Covid pandemic. The survey is expected to diagnose the true extent of economic recovery in the Indian economy and whether India’s growth potential has lost a step or not.

The survey can be expected to paint future scenarios and also suggest policy solutions. For instance, what can be done to boost manufacturing growth in the country? How can India continue to grow fast at a time when both global growth and world trade is likely to remain muted.

Source: Indian Express, 31/01/23

Quote of the Day January 31, 2023

 

“Real glory springs from the silent conquest of us.”
Anonymous

“वास्तविक महानता की उत्पत्ति स्वयं पर खामोश विजय से होती है।”
अज्ञात

Economic and Political Weekly: Table of Contents

 

Vol. 58, Issue No. 4, 28 Jan, 2023

Editorials

A Surge in State Spending

Comment

The Predicament of the Collegium

From the Editor's Desk

The Logic of Educational Inequality

From 50 Years Ago

From 50 Years Ago: On the Political Economy of Underdevelopment

Commentary

Beyond Plastic Identifications - Welfare for Migrants in Kerala

Ambuja Raj

An Ex Ante Evaluation of Indo-Pacific Economic Framework - A General Equilibrium Analysis

Archana Srivastava, Somesh Kumar Mathur, Prabir De

The News Media Circus - Mourning the Daughter(s) on National Television

Smriti Singh

Vulnerabilities among the Non-vulnerable Groups - Through Financial Literacy and Inclusion

Kshipra Jain

R K Hebsur (1935–2022)

Anil S Sutar

M S Prabhakara (1936–2022)

N Bhanutej

Referees

Referees Consulted In 2022

Book Reviews

Data and the Truths of Modern India

Rahul Menon

Lala Lajpat Rai - Communal or Communitarian?

Salil Misra

P J Thomas - A Forgotten Pioneering Economist

J Krishnamurty

Special Articles

‘New Developmentalism’ and Left Mobilisation in Kerala - Experimenting an Alternative to Neo-liberal Development

V Bijukumar

Food and Social Security at the Margins - The Parhaiyas of Jharkhand

Anmol Somanchi

Barriers to Establishing a Dedicated Public Health Cadre - Reflections from the South Indian States

Sobin George, Mohan Rao

Current Statistics

Current Statistics

Postscript

Villains and Their ‘Logic’ in Contemporary Films

Rajat Sebastian, Nidhin Shibu

The Pandemic of Hunger: Testing Times in Bhoka

Sourav Mohanty, Sujit Kumar Mishra

Dinner on Tuesday

Carol D’Souza

Last Lines

Letters

The NJAC vs Collegium Debate

Vedant Choudhary

Psychoanalysis and the ‘Man of Culture’ in India

Umar Nizarudeen

Noble’s Helen: New Swallowtail Butterfly from Arunachal Pradesh

 The butterfly population has been increasing in the state of Arunachal Pradesh in recent times. The state is called the nature trove and is known for its biodiversity. Recently, a new swallowtail butterfly was spotted in the state. It is called the Noble Helen. The species does not occur in India. Its origin is in China, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Cambodia. The butterfly has been disappearing in these countries and was recently spotted in India.

Butterflies

The butterflies occur in all parts of the world except Antarctica. There are 18,500 butterfly species in the world.

• Of these 775 are Nearctic. The Nearctic includes tropical, subtropical, arctic, and temperate regions of North America.
• 7,700 are neo-tropical. Neotropical regions include eight biological terrains. They are south America, the Caribbean islands, Central America, Yucatan Peninsula, southern North America, southern Florida, and central Florida.
• 1,575 are Palearctic. Palearctic includes Eurasia, North Africa, and Arabian Peninsula
• 3650 are Afro-tropical. This includes Madagascar, Iran, the western Indian Ocean, and Pakistan
• 4800 are in Australian regions

Butterflies in India

In India, butterflies occur in Eastern Himalayas, Western Ghats, and in hills in the India – Myanmar border. These friends of humanity are becoming extinct mainly because of the loss of habitat.

India’s First Model G – 20 Summit

 The Indian Institute of Democratic Leadership is a non–profit organization. It is also called the RMP institute as it was founded in memory of Shri Rambhau Mhalgi, an Indian politician and former Member of Parliament. He is famous for running the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad. ABVP is the student wing of RSS. The IIDL recently conducted the Model G – 20 Summit. The institute is known for conducting training and research. It conducts training for leadership. The United Nations Economics and Social Council recently granted Special Consultative Status for IIDL.

About the G – 20 Model Summit

This is the first of its kind. The Indian Sherpa of G – 20 Mr. Amitabh Kant inaugurated the summit. It was conducted at the Mumbai campus of IIDL. The G – 20 summit is highly important for India and other members as the group constitutes 85% of the world GDP. India is hosting the summit in 2023. While developing countries are hesitating to hold international summits, India has come forward amidst the economic crisis, climate change issues, COVID issues, food crisis, energy crisis, and other global turmoil.

Why the model summit?

The IIDL conducts model summits targeting the youth in the country. Such model summits are conducted prior to any international summits. This is done to give exposure to the youths and spread awareness about the importance of such summits among them. Also, such events aid to develop leadership qualities in them at a young age.

UGC issues notice for upgradation of candidates from JRF to SRF

 The UGC notice says that on completion of the first two years of the award, the fellow may apply to the department/university concerned for the upgradation of the Senior Research Fellowship (SRF). “For this, a three-member committee will be constituted with a supervisor, the head of the department and an external subject expert to evaluate the research work of the candidate,” the notice states.

The UGC notification adds that the minutes of the constitution of the committee and recommendations of the committee for upgradation may be sent to the UGC. Thereafter, the fellow will be upgraded and designated as SRF. The committee's recommendation may be submitted to UGC designated agency in the prescribed proforma.

The approval from UGC for upgradation is not mandatory, Higher Educational Institutions (HEIs) are, therefore, requested to ensure the inclusion of external experts in the committee constituted for the upgradation from Junior Research Fellowship (JRF) to SRF. Any proposal without complying with the above guidelines for upgradation from JRF to SRF will not be considered.

Source: educationtimes.com, 30/01/23

Shared unbelonging: The burden of being Muslim is global

 Being a Muslim anywhere in Asia is no passport to a bed of roses. Not even in the continent’s Muslim-majority lands. Thus, in mostly Shia Iran, twenty-three-year-old Mohsen Shekari was hanged in Tehran in December for allegedly injuring a member of the official militia while protesting the death in September of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who had objected to the regime’s stern dress code for women. Amini and Shekari are only two among the many Iranians who’ve paid a heavy price for little more than expressing their opinion.

In Iran’s Sunni-majority neighbour Afghanistan, a recently imposed ban on university education for women drove a young university lecturer identified as Ismail Mashal to rip his certificates into pieces before a TV audience. “If my mother and sister cannot study,” declared the lecturer, “then I do not accept this education.” How Taliban-ruled Afghanistan can rejoin the world community and begin to lighten its citizens’ burdens is hard to picture at this point.

In fact, it is hard today to identify many Asian nations where the average Muslim feels proud and secure. While Bangladesh, which holds the fourth-largest Muslim population in the world, has seen impressive progress in literacy, health, and per capita income, there are solid questions about that country’s democracy.

Containing more Muslims at this point than any other country, Indonesia headed the G20 assemblage until the end of last year, when the baton was handed to India. Holding national elections regularly from 1999, and possessing significant, though depleting, reserves of oil, Indonesia is ranked 52 in the Democracy Index maintained by an organisation linked to the British journal of historic standing, The Economist.  While recognising that an index of this kind must have imperfections, we may nonetheless note that this Democracy Index places Malaysia 39th  in the world. India is ranked at 46, Singapore at 66, Sri Lanka at 67, Bangladesh at 75, Bhutan at 81, Nepal at 101, Pakistan at 104, and China at 148. (Norway is placed first.)

Two Buddhist countries that lie very close to India, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, have, in recent years, witnessed the promotion of anti-Muslim drives, while Myanmar has, in addition, seen merciless attacks on dissenters of every kind. As for our own land, the deepening anxieties of India’s Muslims are known to many of their non-Muslim compatriots, who, of course, form the great majority. Most Muslims in India remain prudently silent about their worries, but on occasion a frank remark escapes their lips.

“Find jobs abroad and, if possible, take citizenships there.” This is what the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Abdul Bari Siddiqui, a former Bihar minister, is reported to have told his son studying in the United States of America as also his daughter studying in London. In a widely seen video, Siddiqui adds that his son and daughter “would not be able to cope in today’s India”. Siddiqui’s unmistakable allusion was to the hostility that many of India’s Muslims appear to confront at this time.

Some found his words unpalatable and provocative.  Nikhil Anand, a Bharatiya Janata Party spokesman in Bihar, commented: “Siddiqui’s remarks are anti-India. If he is feeling so stifled, he should… move to Pakistan. Nobody will stop him.” Several TV channels aired the Siddiqui video and the BJP’s response.

Was Siddiqui’s remark really that outrageous? Haven’t millions of Hindu fathers and mothers in India also said to a son or daughter,  ‘Find a job abroad and, if possible, take citizenship there?’  Doesn’t the government of India proudly advertise its efforts to enlarge the quotas that rich countries set for visas for young Indians for study and also for long-term employment?

Moreover, why would Siddiqui or any Indian Muslim wish to go to Pakistan? The economy there seems to be sinking. Politicians are at war with one another and, at this point, the Pakistan army doesn’t seem to know whether or when to assume direct control, something it has periodically done. Top military leaders have been accused of amassing vast fortunes. The province of Balochistan is home to insurgency and repression. Inside Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa or KPK (the former ‘Frontier Province’), the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan has strengthened extremist groups. And Pakistan’s Christian and Hindu minorities, the latter concentrated in Sindh Province, seem as insecure as ever.

It is, in fact, an open secret that countries like the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, a few other European nations, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand offer greater personal security and liberty to Muslims than most Muslimmajority lands. It wasn’t very long ago that India too could claim itself as a place where Muslims felt safe, but the picture has changed quite dramatically.

At this time, when China’s drive to become the next superpower has run into serious hurdles, India still has the opportunity to return in the world’s mind as democracy’s hope. However, that challenge does not attract our energy and passion today. We want, above all, to persuade ourselves, with scant evidence, that ‘the world is finally recognising India’s greatness’. Acknowledging the anxieties of our Muslim brothers and sisters is the last thing on the minds of our land’s most influential men and women.

This means that the responsibility cast on the shoulders of India’s Muslims is immense. With much of the Muslim world in ugly disarray, with their Hindu compatriots focused elsewhere and indifferent when they are not antagonistic, what can India’s Muslims do? Going abroad is an option for only a handful of them.

In a dream scenario, India’s Muslims would fight their way back to real equality with their Hindu compatriots, and they would do so with fraternity, courage, and wisdom. By doing this, they would also offer hope to India’s neighbours and to the entire Muslim world.

However, we live  not in a dateless dream world but in the India that exists at the start of 2023. Moreover, even in a dream, it would be unfair to ask an apprehensive minority to lead a journey towards trust and partnership.

Yet one thing is certain. It is the inalienable right of any and every Indian to fight for dignity, equality, and liberty, and, simultaneously, offer fraternity to his or her compatriots. A Muslim Indian’s right to do this is not less than that of a Hindu. Not one nanogram less.

Rajmohan Gandhi

Source: The Telegraph, 31/01/23