Varieties that can withstand extreme temperature and rainfall variations, while yielding more using less water and nutrients are the need of the hour given temperature surges.
The Indian economy, especially agriculture, is a “gamble on the monsoon”. That famous early-20th century statement by then viceroy, George Curzon, perhaps, needs rephrasing today. More than the monsoon, it is temperatures that are emerging as a greater source of uncertainty for farmers. Access to irrigation can, to some extent, compensate for a failed monsoon or two. The fact that the country produces more foodgrains now during the rabi (winter-spring) than in the kharif (post-monsoon) season is testimony to the role of irrigation in drought-proofing. But what can farmers do with mercury spikes in February and March? These threaten rabi harvests, which were hitherto considered assured and immune from rainfall vagaries. While rabi crops were always vulnerable to spring thunderstorms and hail, the risks from them pale in comparison to that on account of shorter winters and advanced onset of summers.
The impact of temperature surge was seen in March 2022, when the wheat crop had just entered its final grain formation and filling stage. The heat stress led to early grain ripening and reduced yields. This year, February recorded the highest-ever maximum temperatures, thanks to the absence of active western disturbances that bring rain and snowfall over the Himalayas, whose cooling effect percolates into the plains. Currently, both minimum and maximum temperatures are ruling 3-5 degrees Celsius above normal in most wheat-growing areas. The next couple of weeks or more are going to be crucial. So long as the maximum remains within 35 degrees, there should be no danger of March 2022 repeating itself. But it only highlights how much of a “gamble on the mercury” agriculture has become.
Climate isn’t the only risk farmers are confronting. Even as the prospects for wheat are uncertain, prices of onion and potato have crashed. Mustard, too, is trading below its minimum support price with the arrival of the new crop — a far cry from the situation a year ago when edible oil inflation had peaked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The dual risks from climate and prices may not be new; the difference lies in their frequency, volatility and intensity. Farmers, scientists and policymakers have to adapt to this reality. Green Revolution 2.0 has to be about varieties that can withstand extreme temperature and rainfall variations, while yielding more, using less water and nutrients. This should be accompanied by better crop planning and market intelligence: Farmers must know what to plant, how to manage their crop at various stages under different stress scenarios, and when to sell. Agriculture for today and tomorrow cannot be the same as it was yesterday.
Source: Indian Express, 6/03/23
