Did climate change cause those floods?

Determining whether extreme weather events are caused by climate change is crucial in planning for risks. Else, we will reach a situation in which corrective action may not be enough to protect us

Over the past several years, headlines on weather-related extreme events have included heavy downpours followed by floods, droughts, storms, heat and cold waves, and wild fires. Such events typically destroy lives, property and ecosystems while stretching the capacities of disaster management departments and coffers for emergency funds in various parts of the world. “Protecting people before and after major floods, storms, and extreme events is a core part of our business,” said Karsten Löffler, Managing Director of Allianz Climate Solutions.

Since one of the main impacts anticipated from climate change is an increase in the intensity, frequency or duration of extreme events, there is usually a lot of interest from the media and the public after an extreme event to learn if it was due to global warming. The challenge that scientists and insurers face in responding to such questions is that of “attribution” — that is, to what extent can one consider climate change to be the cause of an extreme event?

Most such events have one or more components that are not related to climate change. For example, incompetent forest management practices contribute to fires. Poor land use planning contributed to heavy downpours and floods in Chennai last year. Consequently, what experts are trying to do to understand attribution is to separate the climate signal from everything else. There are generally nine kinds of extreme events that are considered: heat and cold waves, droughts, wildfires, extreme rainfall, tropical and other cyclones, extreme snow and ice events, and severe convective storms.

Scientific studies of extreme weather events and their attribution to global warming may help various groups such as planners, emergency responders, policymakers and insurance companies. Better knowledge of the risk contributes to how communities, governments, investors and others prepare for the future, with regard to planning cities, proposed infrastructure, natural resources or food security.

Determining attribution

Can scientists tell if an event is caused by climate change?

In order to determine attribution, scientists run climate models to simulate an event or they rely on the observational record from which they may estimate the statistical chance and magnitude of an extreme event. Often, they use both these kinds of approaches.

According to a recent report from the U.S. National Academies titled ‘Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change’, “event attribution is more reliable when based on sound physical principles, consistent evidence from observations, and numerical models that can replicate the event.” All these conditions are not satisfied for every type of extreme weather event. Where long records exist, good models are available, and contribution from non-climactic factors such as human activity can be better considered, attribution turns out to be more robust. Scientists’ confidence in attribution to climate change varies among the kinds of events. There is greater confidence in attributing heat and cold waves, for example, over the other kinds of events described above. With regard to extratropical or mid-latitude cyclones and convective storms, it appears that there is little to no confidence in attributing them to climate change.

Another confounding issue is that there is a natural variability in the occurrence of weather events in any case, so scientists would be looking for a signal that is over and above the natural variability. For this reason, it is difficult for a scientist to be absolutely sure that a particular singular event has been caused by climate change.

As efforts to improve our understanding of extreme events improve, the ability for attribution is expected to improve. As in any other kinds of scientific studies, the accuracy improves with various advances including validation across different approaches, advances in modelling methods, and the accuracy of historical records of such events.

Fat tails and insurance

Global insurance companies were among the earliest groups in the world to ring the alarm on climate change. They are on the frontlines since their business is to estimate the risk of extreme events and then provide protection from their potential impacts. The profits they make arise from the fact that such events are rare. As their frequency, magnitude and impacts increase, the companies’ losses escalate. Some insurers are, in fact, limiting their coverage to those in areas with a moderate risk to climate change impacts and are expanding their business and activities to include solutions to climate change.

Scientists sometimes use the term ‘fat tail’ to describe extreme events. A normal distribution curve, what we know as a bell curve, shows a lot of variation near the average, but produces very few points at the far end of the curve. Biological parameters such as height of Indian women or men are examples of normal curves. In a fat-tailed distribution, on the other hand, portions of the curve that are distant from the average are thicker, and this implies that there is a higher chance of large deviations from the average.

Climate models generally assume a normal distribution rather than a fat tail distribution around the mean, thus ignoring the low probability high-impact events. Economists and some scientists have been telling us that we need to be prepared for extreme temperature and weather events. Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman explain the implications of fat tails for climate policy in their book, Climate Shocks: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet.

Many of the points discussed here may appear nuanced, perhaps not significant, and also difficult to address within the regular political cycles of 4-5 years. But it is the extreme weather events and their incidence that are beginning to increase our everyday experience of climate change. We do not have the capacity to appreciate a change in average temperatures over 50-100 years, but can see what havoc an unusually intense storm or severe drought can cause in our own lifetime.

International agreements such as the recent Paris climate pact and the global targets for sustainable development set goals for governments and political parties to enable nations and communities to address the risks the world faces in the medium and longer terms. We must address anticipated risks even before all our models become accurate enough to estimate every detail of climate extremes. Otherwise, we will reach thresholds beyond which making corrective improvements to deal with climate change may not yield the protection we need.

(Sujatha Byravan is Principal Research Scientist at the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bengaluru.)

Keywords: Uttarakhand floods, Chennai floods, climate change

Source: The Hindu, 28-03-2016

About 69,000 students got research fellowships in 2015-16

There has been an increase in the number of MPhil and PhD students, who received fellowships as part of schemes by the University Grants Commission and All-India Council for Technical Education, since 2013.

The schemes include Junior Research Fellowships and Non-National Eligibility Test (Non-NET) Fellowships. In 2013-14, 41,970 students were awarded fellowships which increased to 56,024 in 2014-15. Till March this year, this figure has gone up to 69,435. The UGC’s fellowship amount, under some of its prominent schemes, for students pursuing research degrees is Rs 25,000 per month for the initial two years and Rs 28,000 for the remaining tenure. Students are also eligible for allowances, as per the fellowship scheme. The fellowships awarded under the Non-NET schemes, through the UGC grants, are Rs 8,000 per month for PhD and Rs 5,000 per month for MPhil students.

There is no fixed allocation for fellowships and scholarships in UGC’s fund. The Central government releases block grants to the UGC for promotion, determination and maintenance of standards of education. In 2013-14, the fellowship amount released by the UGC and AICTE on fellowship schemes for students pursuing research degrees, was Rs 439.40 crore.

This almost doubled the next year (2014-15) to Rs 874.53 crore. This year, it has increased to Rs 1,013.23 crore. More than 30,000 students are selected annually for the fellowship schemes.

These include Post-Doctoral Fellowships for Students in Professional Courses, Post-Doctoral Fellowships for Women, Dr S Radhakrishnan Post-Doctoral Fellowships for Women in Humanities and Social Sciences, Including Languages, Dr DS Kothari Post-Doctoral Fellowships, Emeritus Fellowship, Junior/ Senior Research Fellowships, Maulana Azad National Fellowship for Students Belonging to Minorities, Rajiv Gandhi National Fellowship for SC Students, Rajiv Gandhi National Fellowships for Students with Disabilities and Non-NET Fellowships.

Source: Hindustan Times, 23-3--2016

Apply for Fulbright-Kalam Climate Fellowship,

Applications are invited for the Fulbright-Kalam Climate Fellowship. Launched in September 2014, the scheme aims at building long-term capacity to address climate change-related issues in India and the US.

The doctoral research fellowships under this scheme are designed for Indian scholars who are registered for a PhD at an Indian institution. These fellowships are for six to nine months.

The postdoctoral research fellowships are designed for Indian faculty and researchers who are in the early stages of their research careers in India. Postdoctoral fellows will have access to some of the finest resources in their areas of interest and will help build long-term collaborative relationships with US faculty and institutions. Their duration is for eight to 12 months.

The selected candidate will have affiliation with one US host institution during the grant. All applicants must identify institutions for affiliation and correspond in advance with potential host institutions.

Applicants must have conducted adequate research in the relevant field, especially in the identification of resources in India and the US. They must be registered for a PhD at an Indian institution at least one year prior to August 1, 2016.

For the postdoctoral fellowships, applicants should have been awarded a PhD degree within the past four years. Application deadline for 2017-2018 awards is July 15, 2016.

The programme begins in August-September 2017. The United States-India Educational Foundation administers the Fulbright-Kalam Climate Fellowship on behalf of both the governments.

Source: Hindustan Times, 23-3-2016

The Buddha In Me, The Buddha In You

David Hare





Everyone's a Buddha ­ that includes you, your best mate, your lover, your beautiful kids, your gorgeous grandma and your favourite teacher from school. But you knew that already , right?
The thing is, it also includes the colleague who b****es about you, the friend who betrayed you, the lover who stopped loving you, the driver who cut you up at a roundabout, the father who judged you, the boss who sacked you, and that snotty little kid down the road who you feel like strangling sometimes! Although this may be hard to believe, Nichiren was adamant that everyone has Buddha-potential, explaining that fire can be produced by a stone taken from the bottom of a river, and that a candle can light up a place that has been dark for billions of years.Of course, the qualities of Buddhahood ­ wisdom, courage, joy , life force and compassion ­ are more manifest in some people than others, but the big and bold claim of the Lotus Sutra was that everyone has Buddhahood somewhere deep inside, in a latent state waiting to be tapped.
In the 13th century Japan into which Nichiren was born, this spirit of equality had long since disappeared, with priests acting as intermediaries between ordinary people and the `divine'. There is no better example of this than the belief, vehemently opposed by Nichiren, but taught in preLotus Sutra teachings, that women were unable to attain enlightenment and deserved no better treatment than animals ... He writes that the only way to repay the debt one owes one's mother is to follow the Lotus Sutra because all the other sutras `speak disparagingly of women'.
This is not a `pick and mix' religion ­ the challenge is that the teaching of everyone having Buddhahood, like the principle of cause and effect, is all or nothing. It's either true or it isn't, this Buddha in me, this Buddha in you.Nichiren Buddhism is not one of those religions where you can `pick and mix' the bits you agree with ­ tempting as that may sometimes be ­ because they're all ultimately inseparable, they're intertwined and, i believe, watertight.
To get back to the main point i want to emphasise: everyone's Buddha.
Everyone's life can be more magnificent right here, right now, in the midst of daily reality. This was a revolutio nary teaching in feudalistic 13th century Japan and still ruffles a few feathers now.
I'm a Buddha, you're a Buddha ... and so what? Well, to me this is a message of great hope. It means that you and everyone else can become indestructibly happy , that we have enormous untapped potential, that we are capable of progress even in the most difficult of circumstances, often in ways that we never imagined. Again, so what? Don't all the modern personal development books say the same thing? Yes, they do. But 750 years ago, Nichiren took it a step further. If everyone's a Buddha, it means that you and everyone else are worthy of respect, so it's more inclusive than a self-help philosophy . It's also more democratic than any political system ever will be. If everyone's a Buddha, it means that we can overcome the differences that separate us; it means, in short, that the destiny of the human race is completely and totally in our hearts and our hands. The fundamental spirit of Buddhism is that all people are equal. A person is not great simply because of his social standing, fame, academic background or position.(Abridged from The Buddha In Me, The Buddha In You: A Handbook For Happiness, Rider, Penguin Random House.)

Dear Reader



WISHING YOU A VERY HAPPY HOLI




TISS GUWAHATI CAMPUS LIBRARY

March 22: World Water Day

Every year World Water Day (WWD) is observed globally on 22 March to preserve and ration consumption of water. Significance of the Day: WWD is observed to make a difference for the members of the global population who suffer from water related issues. It marks a day to prepare for how we manage water in the future. 2016 Theme: “Better Water, Better Jobs”. It focuses on the central role that water plays in creating and supporting good quality jobs. Almost half of the world’s workers (nearly 1.5 billion) people work in water related sectors and nearly all jobs depend on water and those that ensure its safe delivery. Background WWD was first formally proposed in Agenda 21 of United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992. Later, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) accepted the recommendation of UNCED and celebrated first World Water Day on 22 March 1993. Since then this day is observed annually to draw attention on the importance of freshwater and advocating for the sustainable management of fresh water resources. 2015 theme of WWD was ‘Water and Sustainable Development’.

India’s water crisis is set to worsen

In Cormac McCarthy’s The Road, a touchstone of dystopian literature, men will visit violence upon each other for the sake of water to drink. The future, unfortunately, is now in Latur in Maharashtra’s Marathwada region where the collector has invoked Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code relating to unlawful assembly. His order prohibits more than five people from gathering near 20 water storage tanks until 31 May in order to prevent possible violence over water scarcity in the drought-hit area. This has been some time coming. Last year, the city’s residents were supplied municipal water once in 15 days; this was later lowered to once a month.

In Punjab, meanwhile, the state Assembly has defied the Supreme Court to resolve that the Sutlej-Yamuna Link Canal (SYL) will not be built. With the Punjab Sutlej-Yamuna Link Land (Return of Property Rights) Bill, 2016, it has decided to deny Haryana its allotted share of the waters of the Ravi and Beas rivers, reneging on a 1976 deal. The consequence: half of the state receiving canal water for eight days after every 32 days, with the state’s southern regions particularly hard-hit.

The specifics are different in both cases. But there are two common inefficiencies that reflect upon India’s burgeoning water crisis—political and agricultural, the latter deriving in large part from the former.

Maharashtra’s sugar belt— which includes Marathwada— declared record production of the crop in 2014-15, a year in which it also faced a second drought after 2012-13. The problem: sugarcane is a water-guzzling crop, consuming over 70% of irrigated water, although it occupies just about 4% of farmed land in the state. That discrepancy hasn’t stopped successive state governments from bailing out the sugar industry time and again with subsidies and loan waivers, short-circuiting market dynamics and incentivizing sugarcane production. This must be seen in the context of the sugar lobby’s political influence and the involvement of a number of state politicians in the industry.

The SYL presents a different kind of opportunism. The issue, framed in populist terms, has been used as a political football since the days of the Khalistan movement. That legacy has shaped the terms of the debate, particularly in light of Punjab’s crop patterns; water-intensive rice crops cover over 60% of the state’s area under cultivation. That makes it easy to portray any inclination to honour the SYL agreement as being antifarmer, the kiss of death in Punjab’s politics.

Marathwada and the SYL are a microcosm of the water disputes that speckle the Indian map. And they are going to grow more intractable. Over the past 50 years, per capita availability of fresh water in India has declined from 3,000 cubic metres to a little over a thousand cubic metres; the global average is 6,000 cubic metres. Underlying this, both cause and effect, is escalating groundwater scarcity.

Of the country’s two sources of fresh water—surface water and groundwater—the latter accounts for some 55%. It also accounts for about 60% of irrigation needs, which take up 80% of India’s total water usage. That skewed pattern is in direct and growing conflict with growing urbanization levels, given that urban water demand per capita daily is thrice as high as rural demand. With India’s urban population expected to hit 50% of the total population by 2050, according to UN figures, that is an untenable situation.

As Marathwada and SYL show, the problem ties into a political ecosystem that is entangled in calculations of patronage and electoral viability. Massive agricultural subsidies, a mainstay of every administration, have incentivized indiscriminate water usage and inefficient cultivation patterns—a problem the Economic Survey 2015-16, presented last month, recognized when it said that the system “encourages using more inputs such as fertiliser, water and power, to the detriment of soil quality, health and the environment”. The result, according to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration: India’s water tables are dropping at the rate of 0.3 metre a year. That sets up a vicious cycle, increasing the importance and political value of surface water, making those disputes more difficult in turn, thus boosting dependence on—and depletion of—groundwater. And unpredictable monsoon adds to the mix; according to the Central Water Commission’s latest numbers, water levels in India’s most important reservoirs now stand at a mere 29% of total capacity.

South Asia is a severely water insecure region. Climate change, according to multiple studies, will hit Asia’s coastal regions among the hardest; large parts of India are already highly stressed. Today happens to be World Water Day. It’s an apt time to consider the policies that are hastening the process.

Source: Mint epaper, 22-03-2016