Followers

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Coronavirus: How the public must respond to the global pandemic

Our preoccupation to protect ourselves should equal our obligation to keep the community healthy. When this is all over, it will rest on all of civilised society to exclude practices that put scores of people far and wide at risk

Coronavirus, one of eight pandemics in the last 100 years, might spread through droplets but the fear it invokes spreads in ways beyond containment. It has brought about a sense of uneasiness and uncertainty in equal measure, taking siege within our cognitive space. In this case, some fear is not only important but necessitates a shift in how we go about our lives. An encounter such as this serves to reset our moral fabric and obligation to society. It comes as a not-so-gentle reminder that the preservation of life takes precedence over our intrinsic desire to propagate self. While there seems to be a long journey ahead for the sick to recover, and for the families of those who succumbed to the virus, our prayers alone will not do.
HCoVs (Human Coronaviruses) are responsible for the common cold in about 10-35% of the cases and generally occur in late fall, winter and early spring. Sars and Mers that wreaked havoc in the past belong to the same family of virus. Historically, Sars (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002-2003 took the lives of around 800 people with a 10% mortality with a 90% burden clustered in Hong Kong and China. In contrast, Mers (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) inflicted significant burden on Saudi Arabia between 2012-2017 with a mortality rate, close to 34%. The H1N1 or swine flu that affected more than a billion people in 2009 had a mortality rate of 0.02%. Though mortality rate for COVID-19 is much lower, the number of documented cases of coronavirus is 15 times more than Sars, at this time. Hence, COVID-19 is unique in its ability to transmit with ease and severe enough to cause significant mortality.
Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped viruses with an unusually large single stranded RNA genome with a unique replication strategy. Well, this may mean very little to many. Putting it simply, they are viruses with spikes in their surface that helps attach to a host, and in this case, human lung tissue. Once it attaches to the lung tissue, it replicates making copies of itself and damaging the lung tissue, making oxygen exchange very difficult. This is also the reason for early respiratory symptoms with COVID-19. This continues till the host’s immune system fights the intruder, like in a war scene. So, what can you do? The singular goal of the virus is to reach the lungs, and all that one can has to do is stop that from happening. This is easier said than done. This is also the reason to stay away from people who can transmit droplets through sneezing or coughing. This is referred to as social distancing. Regarding masks, conventional masks can be porous facilitating this transfer while the better N95 masks (incredibly uncomfortable to wear) are reserved for health care professionals and those with infection.
Epidemiologists and social scientists argue that wearing masks in the absence of any risk or signs of infection might make people touch their face more often than usual, further exacerbating risk. Moreover, piling up those masks at home, anticipating a doomsday will only prevent the ones who actually need it from procuring one. Remember, we are not any safer if the community around us is less safe, no matter how many masks we buy. Keeping the hands clean (a 120-second wash) is in line with this idea to kill the virus before it reaches the lungs. So, what will actually help is to use common-sense and follow safety instructions put forth by local health departments, assuming there is one. In the very young and the very old, the immune system is more likely to be compromised and, therefore, we see greater risk. The coronavirus affects every individual equally. However, it unequally and adversely impacts the elderly and those with a compromised immune system. More important, healthy people who are more likely to recover, can still transmit the disease to someone, older and sicker, who may not be as lucky. It is therefore imperative for the young and healthy to be obligated to protect the elderly. Remember, we will all get there, or at least we hope we do.
The idea of quarantine is the most critical in fighting this intruder. The longest incubation period for the virus to survive before it attaches to a host (in this case a person) is 14 days which is a lot longer than for the common flu which is three days. During this period, if the exposed quarantine themselves, while the sick diligently and carefully seek care through proper channels, and the healthy remain personally and socially responsible, we have what it takes to put a lid on this one. Yet, we struggle to do all of that. As testing becomes more easily available, the numbers will explode adding to the social media hysteria surrounding the illness, which is more tragic than the illness itself. Most data sources based on rates of infection point to a 2% fatality rate. Data on the fatality rate comes from across the world and could be significantly less depending on the country of residency. China, which is at the epicentre of this pandemic is home to much of these numbers. Even in China, only those who showed signs of severe symptoms were tested, further exaggerating the fatality rate. While morbidity is also related to overall burden, most will recover with traditional recovery numbers largely under-reported. So, quarantine will become the new normal in the coming weeks, and this means a significant disruption to the lifestyle we are used to. It is better to accept these as necessary for mitigating risk, which includes every one of us.
A single virus that originated from a single animal source transmitting an infection to one person has brought such a frenzy around the world beyond geographic borders, religion, socio-economic differences, education and political ideologies. It should invoke a personal reminder of the fragility of the human constitution and the importance of collective social responsibility. It is profoundly important in not just fighting and mitigating this imminent risk, but also prevent the next one from attaching to us, quite literally. Today, we witness empty playgrounds, schools, churches, temples and mosques, as we are encompassed by an alarming state of hyper- vigilance, which may be necessary to control this pandemic. Our preoccupation to protect ourselves should equal our obligation to keep the community healthy. When this is all over, it will rest on all of civilised society to exclude practices that put scores of people far and wide at risk.
Ravikumar Chockalingam is a psychiatrist and public health scholar at the US Department of Veterans Affairs, St. Louis, USA
Source: Hindustan Times, 16/03/2020

Data science is the new age engineering


With data and AI becoming the fuel for companies, demand for data science skills is growing exponentially

Many don’t understand what data science is, often mistaking it for data entry, database administrator or a similar entry-level job. Humans have learnt to use oil effectively by refining it. Data science is the ‘refining of data’ to make it useful, and unlike oil, every company needs to use data to solve complex issues. Consider the case of the new coronavirus. Using data science techniques, one can sift through massive volumes of data to detect and monitor the spread of this highly contagious virus. Companies like BlueDot, an AI startup, have developed a software that could determine the chances of disease occurrence. Data science started off as a tool used by banks to detect fraud but is now being used worldwide in areas such as internet search, health care, speech recognition, image recognition and even airline routing. “Data science is the present and the future of mankind and has the potential to revolutionise the way our life is organised today,” said Dr Abhijit Dasgupta, director of the Bachelor of Data Science program at SP Jain School of Global Management. This statement defines the way data science has evolved — as a lucrative and high-growth career option for youngsters. Big Data Analytics has already established its position as a pre-requisite for formulating effective and insightful business and communications strategies. For three years in a row, the role of a data scientist has been named the number one job in the US by Glassdoor. According to a report by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the rise of data science needs will create roughly 11.5 million job openings by 2026. The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2022, data scientists and analysts will become the number one emerging role in the world. Data science experts are needed in virtually every job sector, not just technology. In fact, five of the world’s biggest tech companies — Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook — contributing to over 52 per cent of the world’s market capitalisation globally, are the biggest employers of data scientists and engineers. According to Glassdoor, in February 2020, the base pay for data science professionals touched an all-time high of AU$114,000 in Australia (average salaries were reported to be between AU$90,000 and AU$200,000 for a data science graduate vis-à-vis AU$40,000 – AU$60,000 for business graduates). In the US, the average data scientist salary is US$113,000, according to Glassdoor. With the demand of data scientists showing no immediate signs of slowing down, salaries for this position will continue to remain high, especially for those who have a degree in data science or related fields.

Source: Economic Times, 17/03/2020

The Season Of Lent


This is the holy season of Lent. The universal Church offers a 40-day reflective period. It’s time to look deeper within. There can be two simple reflective exercises to rejuvenate oneself and revivify one’s spiritual energies. Firstly, begin an introspective journey. We might have several pent-up emotions, weaknesses, scars of tragedies and down moments. And, this is the time for selfrenewal and amendment. There is also the possibility of having only strengths, joys, success and happy moments. Secondly, to start a retrospective journey in one’s heart and mind. This process will help in making us aware of ups and downs, highs and lows, joys and sorrows, and successes and failures. It will free us from all our worries, anxieties, tensions, depressions and stresses of day-to-day life. We may come across several questions pertaining to the life we live daily. The answers to these questions may make us strong in our will power. We are just travellers on a voyage. It may be a short one for some, while a long one for some others. Prayers, fasting, alms-giving, helping the poor and sacrificing should come from our hearts as goodwill gestures and not mere obligations. These special Lenten practices are meant to be observed throughout the year and not just for the Lenten season per se. We all are God’s children and we share the responsibility to help, support and care for one another. Reconciling differences within and with others will make a difference in this season of Lent for discovering the true Self.

Source: Economic Times, 17/03/2020

Monday, March 09, 2020

Quote of the Day


“Change before you have to.”
‐ Jack Welch
“मजबूरी की स्थिति आने से पहले ही परिवर्तन कर लें।”
‐ जैक वेल्च

Economic and Political Weekly: Table of Contents


Vol. 55, Issue No. 10, 07 Mar, 2020

Letters

Editorials

From the Editor's Desk

From 50 Years Ago

Alternative Standpoint

Commentary

Book Reviews

Perspectives

Special Articles

Economic Notes

Postscript

Current Statistics

How to prepare for IELTS and get desired score

For undergraduate and graduate courses, the minimum scores range from 6 to 7, whereas there are also some elite institutions that demand 7.5. Know how to get your desired score.

Most Indians dream of pursuing higher education abroad or working in foreign locations. However, doing so is not that easy as it sounds. One of the most common criterias that several institutions or organisations ask from foreign candidates is the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) tag, in the absence of which individuals would not be permitted to operate overseas. IELTS is a standardised proficiency test that analyses and evaluates a candidate’s command over the English language and this is why scoring well in this test becomes essential for anyone who wishes to study or work outside their home countries.
IELTS is a two hour and 45-minute test that includes four sections: listening, reading, writing and speaking. Candidates can score within a range of 1 to 9 in each of these sections – meaning nobody passes or fails this test. However, candidates must know that the minimum scores set by different institutions may vary. For undergraduate and graduate courses, the minimum scores range from 6 to 7, whereas there are also some elite institutions that demand 7.5. Candidates have the choice to either give the test on paper or computer.

So how one can prepare for IELTS? Here are some tried and tested techniques:
Timed Practice: Firstly, it is always advised to take the test early. Doing so will not only allow you to experience the test but also give you a clear picture of where do you land at the moment. This will help you plan and prepare better to score well in the available time slot.
Enhancing Listening Skills: The best practice to enhance your listening skills is developing a habit of listening to English podcasts and radio stations instead of songs. Start following and listening to the top English speakers regularly until you become familiar with their accent and understanding their pronunciation becomes a hassle-free task.
Go natural with the accent: In doing so, make sure you never imitate their accent. Remember it never works in the real world. Invigilators can quickly notice if you copy anybody’s accent and will immediately deduct marks for such blunders. A natural accent is, therefore, highly recommended to score above 6 in this section. One should instead focus on improving fundamental skills such as sentence formation, grammar, punctuation, etc.
Develop reading skills: For the next section, a regular reading practice is strongly recommended. Read more and more newspapers, magazines or novels, either in print or online. The more you read the more your vocabulary will advance and this will have a direct positive impact on your writing skills as well. This way, you will be able to use rich and better words in the writing section of the test.
Strengthen writing skills: To hone your writing skills, you may start with drafting essays under strict time limits. Give mock tests and keep writing in your downtime. In fact, write on any topic that interests you – be it politics, sports, storytelling, anything; this will help you develop a knack around writing on different topics and eventually enhance and add pace to your writing.
Practice pronunciation and fluency: The last section is speaking, where you will be given a good five to six minutes to describe yourself. It may include speaking about your hobbies or any particular topic that the interviewer may ask for. For this, start having conversations with friends and family members in English. Although being a Hindi speaking Indian, it may feel awkward initially, slowly and surely you will develop fluency, enough to score well in this section. While speaking in front of the invigilator, remember not to be too loud or even low. Speak at a moderate speed to allow the person to easily comprehend the words coming out of your mouth.
There is a huge collection of study materials available on the internet and offered by coaching institutes such as the British Council, which is certainly useful to train and prepare yourself for IELTS. Other alternatives for IELTS are also available for aspirants who wish to pursue higher education from foreign universities – for instance, DuoLingo and TOFEL.
So what are you waiting for? Follow these tips to improve your English linguistic skills and earn a graduate degree from your dream institution.
— The author is director ESS Global

Source: Indian Express, 7/03/2020

Let’s focus on broadening scope of data collection to make statistical system more comprehensive

Volatility of oil prices and structural changes in the economy make the forecasting of inflation and GDP a difficult job indeed. However, we should supplement our existing measurement practices with “big data” to make our statistical system robust.

Last week was not kind to global markets as fears of the coronavirus turning into a world-wide pandemic affected markets adversely, India included (it was also impacted by news of Yes Bank). During all this, the latest GDP data witnessed significant revisions that have gone largely unnoticed. In the last few years there has been a lot of noise regarding the data revisions. While part of it requires closer examination, we must be fair to our statistical system as such revisions are, in large part, due diligence and happen globally.
Let us first look at the history of GDP data revisions. The first table shows the extent of GDP data revisions since FY15, when the new series was introduced. The first column in the table explains the simultaneous revisions that have taken place over the years. The NSO releases the first estimates of any fiscal year in January, revises it in February and then again in May.

Simultaneously, it revises the previous year estimates in February, alongside the February data release. The primary criticism, apparently, with the current year’s fiscal data is that the revisions in February for 2019-20 and the 4th revision in 2018-19 are almost identical, implying that the sanctity of 5 per cent growth was statistically protected.
Let us examine, based purely on data, the criticism of such revisions. First, there is precedence to the first and second quarter revisions for the current financial year that happen in February. For example, while in the current fiscal, the cumulative downward revision was close to Rs 30,000 crore, in FY19, there was even a greater upward revision of roughly Rs 86,000 crore in February.
Second, is there precedence of such large first-time revisions? Yes, there has been since 2014-15. In 2018-19, the first-time data was revised by a sharp Rs 1.43 lakh crore, while in 2017-18, it was revised by an even larger Rs 1.69 lakh crore.
Third, the simultaneous revisions are mostly in the same direction, though different in magnitude, and hence it is unfair to say that the 2018-19 data was revised downwards to protect the 2019-20 numbers.
The problem has been that the global and domestic uncertainties in 2017-18 and 2018-19 have been so swift that it has been virtually impossible to predict the outcome initially. While in 2017-18, the final estimates were progressively higher, in 2018-19, while the interim estimates were higher, they wereWe would like to point out here the example of US Fed that had also missed the possibility of the US economy bouncing back in 2018 on the back of tax cuts when in 2015 it had projected the economy to expand by only 2 per cent, only to change it to 3 per cent in 2018 (almost at par with scale of revisions in India).
It is common for such unconditional bias to arise due to the fact that the statistical reporting agency produces releases according to an asymmetric loss function. For example, there may be a preference for an optimistic/pessimistic release in the first stage, followed by a more pessimistic/optimistic one in the later stage. Intuitively, one might argue that the cost of a downward readjustment of the preliminary data is higher than the cost of an upward adjustment. This asymmetric loss function is not so relevant at the reporting stage, but at the forecasting stage. A statistical reporting agency like the NSO simply does not have all the data at hand and has to forecast the values of the yet to be collected data. It is at that moment that the asymmetric loss function comes into play. So, we must be careful about interpreting data revisions by the NSO by attributing ulterior motives as we more often tend to do.
However, we must also add that unlike countries across the world, India is still significantly lagging in its use of data analysis. Some of the current methodology of data collection is based mostly on thin surveys and is not supported by data available in the public domain that are more comprehensive, less biased and real-time in nature, based on digital footprints. The end result is that we end up publishing survey results that are misleading.
Thus, we must develop an ecosystem that is high quality, timely and accessible. Big data and artificial intelligence are key elements in such a process. Big data helps acquire real-time information at a granular level and makes data more accessible, scalable and fine-tuned.
For example, a US inflation report released in April 2019 offered an interesting take on how the use of big data was revolutionising data collection. Instead of sending people out to stores to check prices, as it has done for decades (and also practised in India), the US Bureau of Labour Statistics gathered data for the price of apparels directly from a big department store. With the switch, the largest monthly drop in apparel prices on record was witnessed. In similar vein, for India, the inclusion of items available for online sale could even further compress the headline consumer price index. drastically scaled down later as the impact of the NBFC crisis began to unfold.
The use of payments data can also help track economic activity, as is being done in Italy. Different aggregates of the payment system in Italy, jointly with other indicators, are usually adopted in GDP forecasting, and can provide additional information content. Using a similar corollary for India, proper use of GST data will reveal the sectors that are giving maximum revenue, that are showing month-on-month increase, and can help make predictions of net revenue growth, while also helping in fraud detection. Further, as India is a consumption-oriented economy, we must explore measuring GDP using the GST data.
In India, currently survey results are giving contrasting results. For example, the weighting pattern of food items in CPI at 45.86 per cent is based on the 2011-12 consumer expenditure survey (CES). This is significantly different from the share of food and beverages (27.6 per cent) in the private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) published by the national account statistics (NAS). If we approximate the CPI with the NAS food weights, the headline CPI drops to 7.6 per cent from 5.5 per cent in the latest inflation print.
Recent independent research also shows significant divergence between the consumer price index for industrial workers and the consumer price index (urban) in recent times, when in terms of the composition of the basket and the target population, the two are quite similar.
But to be fair to both the RBI and the NSO, the volatility of oil prices and structural changes in the economy make the forecasting of inflation and GDP a difficult job indeed. however, we should supplement our existing measurement practices with “big data” to make our statistical system more comprehensive and robust.
This article first appeared in the print edition on March 9, 2020 under the title ‘Don’t blame it on NSO’. 
Source: Indian Express, 9/03/2020