Tuesday, March 14, 2017

The strategic choices before us today are similar to the ones U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are facing: in a fast-changing world, national interest is not served by avoiding problems left over by a previous order. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to challenge long-established convictions on whether the elements of power in the next world order will revolve around diplomacy, force, or trade as the primary tool.

Moving to a multipolar world

In the last 20 years, incomes of 80% of the population in the West stagnated while per capita income in China quadrupled, and India’s more than doubled. Society is ageing; technology is disrupting labour markets and business models. The digital economy is expected to provide one-quarter of global productivity by 2025 and will have the U.S., China and India reinforcing the multipolar order.

The functioning of the global economy has affected the economic and political relationship between the large and small economies, reducing and increasing the leverage exercised by the U.S. and China, respectively. The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which former U.S. President Barack Obama failed to weaken, and the New Development Bank of the BRICS could provide the required $8-15 trillion, marginalising the World Bank. China is projecting the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative as a replacement for the U.S.-led post-1950 multilateral institutions.

Mr. Trump is understandably questioning the relevance of the United Nations for the U.S., favouring bilateral deals and forcing others to rethink the nature and role of international cooperation. He is resetting priorities away from peacekeeping, environment and human rights to trade.

His ‘America First’ strategy has broad support within the U.S. Other rich countries like Japan and the U.K. are likely to adopt this new template doing away with concessions to others. There will be consequences for the World Trade Organisation, in particular if the WTO dispute resolution panels rule against the U.S., leading to a questioning of the rule-based system itself.

Mr. Trump recognises that he cannot stop global trends and the diminishing returns from a reliance on diplomacy and force, exemplified by the failure of the U.S. ‘pivot’ in containing China. Mr. Obama’s response to the entry of three billion Asians into the global economy was to attempt setting new trade rules outside the WTO. Mr. Trump has rejected this approach, favouring an employment-oriented deal around specific sectors much like the Obama-Xi understanding on climate change. The difference is that Mr. Trump is prepared to limit imports and boost exports even at the cost of upsetting long-standing agreements and allies.

Mr. Trump is “willing to find new friends and to forge new partnerships where shared interests align”, rejecting the Cold War logic of containment, reliance on foreign bases and alliances. He sees China as the greatest threat, as the combination of military and economic strength creates a strategic situation where, like in the Cold War, the U.S. will need to seek a “constructive relationship” in Asia rather than dominance and may join the OBOR.

Asian connectivity and India

Mr. Trump is moving for a political deal with Russia and a trade deal with China. Chinese exports to the U.S. are already declining, the shift to a consumption-driven economy will open markets for U.S. goods, and the RMB is now a global reserve currency. India is more vulnerable with two-thirds of the exports of the $150-billion IT industry to the U.S. and the ‘Make in India’ strategy colliding with Mr. Trump’s priorities, requiring India to make strategic choices.

As the multilateral order fragments into spheres of influence, we first need a bold vision on Kashmir and must not just seek to isolate Pakistan. We should join the OBOR, while maintaining our reservations on its branch passing through Kashmir, and become part of the growing Asian market.

The nature of conflict is changing from direct clashes to disruption of critical infrastructure through remote attacks. With world-class cyber-space-biotech capability, we should reconsider large-scale purchases from abroad for massive investment in cybersecurity and the related digital economy that will make the ‘Digital India’ initiative into ‘Digital Asia’. India expects nothing less from Mr. Modi.

Mukul Sanwal is a former UN diplomat and currently Visiting Professor at the Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Source: The Hindu, 14-03-2017

Science is well: Innovation is alive and kicking in India

Timing and this writer’s desire to be contrary have worked together to ensure this column isn’t about the results of the Uttar Pradesh election.

Timing because this column is being written before the actual results — the editors insist this piece be filed every Friday, at the latest — and I do not want to say anything based on the exit polls because they have been wrong, horribly wrong, in the past.

Anyway, since everyone and his pet cat will be weighing in on the elections (and I am sure that I too shall eventually succumb and do so on some platform), I do not want to write about them, at least not yet.

Time was when columnists would write about their areas of expertise; now, everyone wants to comment on the hot-button issue of the day. It would be all right if each had something new or different or insightful to say. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. I put this down to a case of columnist arrogance, deadline pressure, and the increasingly visible tendency, among writers and editors, to offer readers intellectual click bait. The first because most columnists believe readers want to know their opinions on a subject, even if they are no different from other people’s, or shed no new light on it. The last because if Gurmehar Kaur is trending, it makes sense (or so some believe) to write something on it because it will mean more website traffic. The second is self-explanatory and entirely forgivable.I am writing this article (actually rushing to complete it) in an extremely positive frame of mind, not because of what the exit polls show, but because, I soon have to head out for Day 2 of Mint and MIT Technology Review’s EmTech India Innovators Under 35 event. This is the second year Mint is hosting the event.

It is always good, especially for someone who usually moderates events on macroeconomics or Indian banks’ bad loans problem, to sit through an event where speakers reference 2001: A Space Odyssey and The Matrix, and generally prove why science fiction is different from fantasy. For the benefit of the uninitiated, fiction is always in the realm of the possible (although it may not always be probable). Fantasy is about the impossible.

The highlight of this event is the recognition of Technology Review’s Innovators Under 35. This is the Indian leg of MIT Technology Review’s global awards platform for young innovators. Along with a few other judges from India and around the world, I have gone though several entries, and that, and the profile of the winners this year is the reason for my sunny mood.

I think it was a Mint columnist — I can’t remember who, and Google has decided not to help me — who once wrote that while Indians love technology, they are not comfortable with science. Worse still, the technology icons most Indians admire — in recent years, this has usually been any young Indian Institute of Technology graduate with the surname Bansal (and I mean no offence to any Bansal) — are usually people who have built businesses (or are trying to build businesses) that aren’t particularly high on the innovation quotient. Many run companies that are local copies of global ones (and some even run these clones badly).Yet, innovation is alive and well in India.

There is a bunch of start-ups — two of them, that work in the area of Artificial Intelligence (Mad Street Den Systems and Mixup Communications, recently featured on a global listing of 50 hot start-ups no one had really heard of — that are working at the bleeding edge of technology.

And, as platforms such as the TR Under 35 show, there is a bunch of young innovators working on non e-commerce and non dot com innovations. For instance, this year’s innovators include a young man whose company has created a local language mobile phone operating system, a young woman who has combined data science and chemical engineering to make the oil producing process more efficient, and another young man who has come up with a way to make play more social.

A few months back, when I opened the judge’s portal and looked at the entries I had to evaluate, I actually gave out a mini-whoop of delight: the first entry had to do with pure chemistry.

Science is well in India; there’s hope for innovation in the country; and all is well with the world.

Source: Hindustan Times,12-03-2017

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Why all the world’s a stage

In this drama of life, it is important that we respect our co-actors and work together in peace and harmony

As many of us would have already realised, life is indeed a drama with each of us doing varied roles at various stages of our lives, that resonate with our personality and temperament. Every role has its own identity and purpose. But unlike in a staged drama, in life people are free to choose the roles they want to play. For example, you might have to get married in a drama, whereas in life you have a choice: you can either get hitched or remain single.

Hence, when people have the power to decide what role they want to play, it is imperative that they make wise choices that would result in positive consequences for themselves as well as to their fellow humans.

While role play on a stage can, in most cases, be a joyful experience, the real roles we play bring with them several challenges and problems that need to be overcome if we want to play our parts to perfection. God-willing, you are blessed with motherhood, but the real challenge comes after you deliver your bundle of joy, how you are going to make her blossom as a worthy individual.

It takes a lot of effort on the part of every person to strive and achieve excellence in their various roles. Today everyone has several opportunities to try out diverse roles, and it is up to the individual to choose roles of their liking, or roles that they believe would help them fulfil their needs, aspirations.

The choices

It is up to the discretion of the individual to take up a single role or multiple roles on the basis of their ability to execute it/them. A homemaker is no less worthy than a working woman; it is simply a choice made by the individual.

One must remember that what truly matters is not the number of roles we can take up, rather it is whether we are able to play each role to perfection and derive happiness and satisfaction from our performance. We should also be able to spread this happiness to those around us. In order to ensure this, we definitely need to introspect on our respective roles. For this, individuals need to take time off and reflect on the roles they perform, and ascertain whether they truly enjoy them.

It is necessary to ensure that we are fulfilling each role to the best of our abilities. And if we find a lag then we must make sure that we make up for the loss and rework our strategies. And unlike in a stage play, our real roles come with a lot of emotional bonding, which requires us to be more sensitive in handling the roles that we execute.

It also calls for more commitment and acumen as finally it is these roles that determine our inner happiness and well-being.

Once we take up certain roles they will remain with us for our lifetime; it will not be easy to shed them whenever we want to. You will, for instance, always be a parent to your child irrespective of whether you are married or divorced. So as a parent you need to play your role till the very end.

And given the myriad roles at stake, it is also sometimes possible that people choose roles that are beyond their ability. In such cases it is better we stick to the roles in which we are able to perform better as every individual has different strengths and capabilities. We can push the boundaries only to a certain extent.

In this drama of life it is important that we respect our co-actors and work together in peace and harmony. We must never gauge another individual’s role worth based on social, economic, political, racial or cultural factors as each role, however trivial it might appear to be, has its importance in its own space. We must always strive to prove our role’s worth and give back to society.

It is more likely that people would remember an affluent individual for his contribution to society rather than any empire he would have built for himself. So if we want to leave a mark even after we have left the stage it can only be through the good work that we would leave behind.

If each of us is able to comprehend our own roles better and contribute to society even in a small way, it would make a world of difference to future generations.

Source: The Hindu, 11-03-2017

Is noise the only way to get noticed?

Why political parties must give local politicians a bigger stake in larger issues of the day.

Fringe elements affiliated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been in the news ever since the party came to power. Activists who pretend to be associated with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh too have had their day in the news.

There are two widely held explanations for such activism. First, the “fringe” is encouraged by the party as a strategy to appeal to more extreme elements within the party and to polarise politics. Second, and more specific to the right wing, some believe that these individuals’ provocative actions and remarks are indicative of the government’s tacit support for Hindutva principles. Since the party can always use plausible deniability to distance itself from the actions of the fringe elements, both explanations are plausible.

There are two other reasons. The first, we believe, is that this behaviour is symptomatic of the tendency of lower-level politicians and often even bureaucrats to indulge in actions that would help them win favour among their political superiors. Take the case of some ABVP leaders who have been involved in pushing a virulent nationalist agenda. Their actions have served to embarrass the BJP and the Central government.

There are also local politicians who have misperceived favourable responses or miscalculated the impacts of their actions. Rabble-rousers, from Yogi Adityanath to Sakshi Maharaj, have consistently undermined the government’s development agenda and even embarrassed the government by making inflammatory remarks centred on religion. In our view, this results from a systemic problem with our politics — that career advancement of individuals in political parties and the bureaucracy is determined largely by random criteria, often on the whims of their political masters.

Lack of democracy

In India, unless one hails from a well-established political dynasty or has a great amount of financial resources, he or she would find it extremely difficult to move up the political ladder. Research by Rajkamal Singh and Rahul Verma shows that almost two-thirds of Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh in the 2017 election were contested by families that have long been a part of electoral politics. There is a complete absence of inner-party democracy at the local level. Thus, lower-level politicians have two options to increase the likelihood of their political advancement. One is a ‘push’ strategy, by consistently doing good work on the ground and hoping that the party recognises their work. However the randomness in criteria for political advancement, attributable in large part to the absence of party democracy and a deeply entrenched system of dynastic politics, means this strategy is unlikely to work very well. The fact that parties do not have well-established party organisations at the local level elevates the randomness of advancement within their ranks.

An easier way still is to try and win favour directly with their political masters, who rarely follow well-established processes to determine political promotions. This strategy would rest on the assumption that political bosses, if impressed with the individuals, would ‘pull’ them up through the party ranks. However, since most parties in India are highly centralised, access to the party high command is extremely restricted. In order for them to get noticed by those in higher ranks, they need to create some sort of noise or disturbance, and this often finds expression in the form of coercion and crime.

No sense of involvement

Second, current social science research shows that an individual’s sense of responsibility is linked to the organisational characteristics within which they work. The hierarchical nature of Indian parties means this lower rung simply does not feel the same level of responsibility towards the larger goal set by the party. This is buttressed by the failure of parties to cultivate a sense of ownership for local politicians in the larger issues facing the nation. This leaves individuals at the local level with virtually no sense of responsibility towards many of the policy decisions a government takes and they are left to interpret the party’s core concerns the way they wish.

In order to deal with this effectively, one option for political parties would be to come down on these individuals with a heavy hand. This is difficult in a democracy. A better and more sustainable option is to reduce the randomness in political advancement at the local level. This can be done by introducing reforms that strengthen inner-party democracy during selection of candidates for different roles. Such reforms are bound to face resistance from a system very set in its ways, and require bold leadership to push through. An instance was when Rahul Gandhi introduced primary-style elections in a few constituencies before the 2014 election.

Over the past few years, India has witnessed too many discomforting actions and events on behalf of its political class. It is imperative that political parties take steps to alter the incentive structure of the system and give local politicians a larger stake in larger issues of the day.

Pradeep Chhibber teaches Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. Harsh Shah is an alumnus of the University of California, Berkeley. The views expressed are personal.

Source: The Hindu, 11-03-2017

UPSC Civil Services: Here’s everything you need to know about The Interview

The Civil Services examination, conducted by the Union Public Service Commission, is one of the most arduous and keenest competitions in India, involving over five lakh aspirants vying for a mere 800-1000 seats. Spread over a period of nearly a year, the preliminary, main examinations and the interview (personality test) represent the three phases of this marathon selection process.

The personality test, which is the final gateway to the so-called corridors of power – to the foreign, civil, police and other services, is perceived as the proverbial X-factor in the success story of a candidate. The 275 marks of the personality test (out of a total of 2025 marks) are significant as the UPSC can award as high as 80% or as low as 30% of the budgeted marks. This implies a range of nearly 140 marks, which can catapult an aspirant to the top 100 or simply chuck him or her out of reckoning.

So, what’s the test of personality all about and how is it conducted? This test is usually held from March to May. (This year, personality tests/interviews of the selected candidates are likely to commence from March 20, 2017).The UPSC gives an interview call to nearly 2,500-3,000 candidates. It organises every day several boards, each headed by a UPSC member and comprising four to five other members, usually experts from different fields. The board conducts the interview by posing questions, seeking views and assessing the objective appreciation of a candidate regarding different issues of national and international significance. It also tests the candidates in areas related to their personal profile as disclosed in their ‘detailed application form’ (DAF) submitted to the UPSC.

The tenor of the interview is that of a purposeful conversation. The objective is the assessment of the thoughts and overall personality of the candidate and not merely bookish knowledge or even theoretical concepts, with the latter already being an area of evaluation in the main examination. What the board usually endeavours to assess in the aspirants, is her/his sincerity of purpose, clarity of thoughts and expression, balance of judgement, ability to reason, to think critically, analytically in a wholistic way, positiveness of approach, awareness and concern for socio-economic issues and problems, inter alia other attributes. But what is of utmost importance is the ability to think with an honest approach, sincerity of purpose and willingness to toil hard.

Now how should candidates get ready for the interview? Here are a few helpful and practical tips.

Begin your preparation early, preferably within a fortnight or a month of completion of the main examination. Do not wait for the results of the examination. If you could not do so in this window of time, then begin at the earliest. The first phase of preparation can start with a more purposive reading of newspapers and magazines.

The issues of national and international importance and even those of regional or local significance often form the nucleus around which the interviews revolve. Getting a good grasp of such issues is of essence. However, the focus in interview is not on mere facts and figures, but more on issues, their appreciation and analysis. Such articles are often found in the editorial page of the top national dailies, which must be perused properly and comprehended fully. To give a wider coverage to their preparation, aspirants must go through a couple of national dailies. Similarly, one must read at least one good news magazine. Political gossip, page-3 news, sports trivia and other such news items do not add any value to the interview preparation and should be avoided. It is advisable to collect the old issues or net archives of a monthly magazine (issues from October-November). In the previous issues identify the articles of national/international importance, those of enduring significance or issues which continue to be contemporaneous. Go through them and prepare brief notes on them.

Note-making should be very precise as well as concise. Once one has gone through the article, one must reflect on it and ask oneself, is it of relevance to me? If yes, then is it worth making a note or can I mentally summarise the essence of article and possibly remember it till the interview stage? Am I in agreement with what is stated in the article? If not, why? Always endeavour to analyse the viewpoint expressed. Does the viewpoint conform to logic and reasoning? Is it falling within the Constitutional and legal framework. How is it for the larger good of our nation and its people? Thus, develop your own perspective. Identify the most important points which the article is emphasising upon. Note such three to five salient points in a small note book/spiral pad/memo page of your smart phone. Revise them whenever you catch a few moments of spare time during the day.

Television too is an important aid for preparation. However, exercise discretion in what and how much television you should watch. It advisable to switch to prime time news on national channels like, Doordarshan, Rajya-sabha TV, Lok-sabha TV, NDTV, etc. Look out for those programmes which carry views and opinion of eminent people. Listening to All India Radio (FM Gold) and programmes like News at Nine, Market Mantra (economic news programme) and Spot-light (news analysis programme) are equally good options.

Internet has emerged as a viable option for all of the above and more. Besides reading newspapers, magazines watching/hearing news programmes etc., internet resources are rather valuable while working in areas related to one’s personal profile (DAF). Further, good articles can easily be saved in soft form or important capsules of article be compiled. However, beware, net surfing can be addictive and at times a drain on your time.

This phase of preparation is also an opportunity to widen your horizons of thought by reading good books, particularly non-fiction. Target at least a couple of books per month. Books authored by Dr A PJ Abdul Kalam, Ramchandra Guha, Narayana Murthy, Amartya Sen, Nandan Nilkani, etc. which reflect on world issues, India and its society, economy, polity etc. are definitely good value for time. Besides, do look out for specific books pertaining to areas of your interest, hobbies, state of domicile, or even those connected with the discipline of your current job/occupation.

Also look out to meet successful candidates of past years or experts/seniors etc from the field you work or study in. You can also read the blogs of previous years’ toppers. Joining a coaching institute or a guidance programme for the interview is not a must, particularly if one has had in the past an experience of such an interview programme or of the UPSC interview itself. However, for first timers, such programmes may make some value addition. But do join only with the feedback/recommendation of a candidate or a person who has a first-hand knowledge of the coaching institute/guidance programme, lest it becomes a millstone around your neck.

The author is an IRS officer and has also written Civil Services Interview: How to Excel, a book published by McGraw Hill Education (India) Pvt Ltd.

Source: Hindustan Times, 10-03-2017

Indian women have no time to work outside the house

Fifty-nine years ago when my mother, a full-fledged lawyer with a fledging practice, got married, she declared that she would no longer work. In her worldview, careers and marriages were simply incompatible.

Just how much has changed — or not — became clear with a new survey that finds that while many women want both careers and time at home, a significant number only want to stay home.

The first survey of this magnitude — some 149,000 men and women across 142 countries — looks at attitudes to work. The largest numbers (41%), want a paying job and time at home, finds the study by the International Labor Organization and Gallup. But only 29% of women globally want full-time paid jobs while 27% want to stay home.

The findings tie in with India where 30% want paid jobs. But the numbers who want to stay home are significantly higher at 41%, with only 22% who want both.

The survey comes at a time when India’s female labour force participation has been steadily declining from 35% in 1990 to 27% in 2014. Ironically, the number of girls with more than 10 years of schooling has been steadily increasing from 22.3% in 2005 to 35.7% in 2015.

The statistics are grim. Among G20 nations, we hover above Saudi Arabia with only 27% of women aged 15 and older in the workforce, finds an International Monetary Fund paper. And 25 million women have left the workforce in the past decade finds data analysis website IndiaSpend.

You would imagine that unprecedented economic growth post liberalisation, not to mention greater educational attainment, would result in more women in paid jobs. In fact, the opposite has happened.

It’s a mystery that has vexed economists and policywalas, and while there’s no definitive answer, there are several theories.

In October, a team of Harvard faculty researchers questioned single, rural women aged between 18 and 25 to find that family and marriage were cited as the biggest constraints to paid work.

Balancing paid work with family life is a challenge all women face. But only in India, found a survey, do women spend 298 minutes a day cooking, cleaning and looking after kids and parents, compared to a pathetic 19 minutes a day spent on similar work by Indian men.

When the burden of unpaid care work falls so disproportionately on women, is there any time to work outside the house? If anything, rising family incomes are likely to result in women opting out of the workforce so that they can “take better care of their homes”.

There are, of course, other reasons: Not enough flexi-time options, for instance, or unsafe public transport and harassment at the workplace. Existing gender pay gaps are also a deterrent. The latest Monster Salary Index report finds that Indian men earn 25% more than women. The biggest gaps are not just in traditional sectors like manufacturing but also in newer sectors like information and communication technology.

Unequal pay for the same work tells us how we as a society value men and women. But the benefits of getting more women into paid work accrue not just to GDP but to women themselves: If she’s viewed as a productive economic asset, her prestige increases and so does the investment in her education and health.

Yet, nothing will change unless we first change social attitudes to unpaid care work.

So, while increasing paid maternity leave from 12 to 26 weeks is a laudable step, it also reinforces the stereotype that child-rearing is a woman’s job (those who say men cannot breastfeed have clearly never heard of a breast pump). In fact, some activists fear that giving women six months off from work will become an obstacle to their career advancement.

When a significant proportion of women say they want to stay home, the message is clear: Gender stereotypes about unpaid care work and a woman’s place in it remain prevalent. My mother grappled with this 59 years ago. The fact that her grand-daughters still have to, should be deeply troubling.

Source: Hindustan Times, 10-03-2017

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