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Wednesday, June 14, 2017

What is Simon-Ehrlich wager in Economics?


A famous bet made in 1980 between American business professor Julian L. Simon and American ecologist Paul R. Ehrlich on what the price of certain ‘non-government-controlled’ natural resources will be in 1990. Ehrlich predicted that increasing demand from a swelling population would exhaust the limited supply of resources, thus increasing their prices. Simon, on the other hand, argued that the price rise would incentivise new production which in turn will reduce the price of these resources. Simon eventually won the bet as the inflation-adjusted prices of all five metals picked by Ehrlich dropped between 1980 and 1990.

source: The Hindu, 12-06-2017