Colonial mentality’: A misinterpreted notion that stitched together a nation

 India as a country might have existed even without colonial rule, but would that have been a ‘modern nation’? There's no simple answer to this

The term ‘colonial mentality’, often used by cultural nationalists today, especially towards their western-educated compatriots, has got one thinking. If one supposes that it applies to those Indians who do not value their own cultural past but only look to the West, it seems valid enough.

But let us first consider what the Indian nation owes to colonialism. There are, of course, those who say that without the British, India would not have been unified politically, but there was a Mughal empire before the British arrived. India might not have had its present shape if that empire had continued or evolved into other things but it could still have remained a unity of sorts.

But while India as a country might have existed, could that India ever have been a ‘modern nation’, considering that our Constitution owes itself to western models? Independent India’s first leaders were mostly lawyers and it was their training in the western legal system that made them see the need to depend on social values defined as essential in western democracies (democracy, egalitarianism, justice) and duly have them enshrined.

Yet, many still continue to refer to the “colonial mindset” as a negative factor, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  In November last, on the occasion of Constitution Day, Modi said “the colonial mindset is giving rise to many distortions”.  On another occasion, he said “India’s growth story is being disrupted by forces with colonial mindsets”.

In writing about the origins of nationalism in colonial India, political scientist Partha Chatterjee (The Nation and its Fragments: Colonial and Postcolonial Histories, 1993) notes that articulation of anti-colonial nationalism rested on a separation between two distinct spheres, namely, the spiritual and the material. The material realm is one of economy, statecraft, science and technology, in which the superiority of the West, represented by the colonial power, is an established fact. In the material domain, therefore, the historical task before the colonised was to reproduce for itself, the benefits of the project of colonial enlightenment and modernity.

Sovereign in the spiritual

The spiritual realm, on the other hand, represented true sovereignty for the colonised. It was a sphere of cultural distinctness from, and also superiority over, the colonisers, and hence needed to be preserved in that uncontaminated way. If the material sphere represented the superiority of the colonial rulers, it was the spiritual domain which was the main source of strength and autonomy for the colonised.

Therefore, the spiritual domain was one that needed to be preserved from colonial encroachments. This symbolised nationalism among the colonised people. Any kind of reforms or intervention in the said domain would be completely in the hands of the colonised masses.

Therefore, the essence of the ‘imagined’ nation rested in the so-called spiritual or inner domain in which the colonised masses were sovereign despite being ruled by an alien, foreign power in the material sphere. Extrapolating it to today, we could say that for a modern India to emerge, it would necessarily have to depend on the West in virtually every field that could have played a part it its ‘design’ as an independent nation – economics, political structure, and the areas of science and technology.

But I would also like to make an intervention here, which is that once the nation was constructed according to such material necessities, it would need to keep producing citizens who were well-versed in these areas. Which means that the education system would also have to be heavily western-oriented to produce them.

Where material and spiritual meet

That brings us to the spiritual domain in which the colonised masses were said to be sovereign and where there was strong resistance to allowing the colonial state to intervene since it affected ‘national culture’. But if national culture must also be built upon, a question would be whether it would not need to be studied through methods implicating the ‘material’?

Let us take classical music, for instance, something that cultured Indians are justly proud of. Would it be enough to simply preserve it – as in a museum – or would we need to understand how it came about to be this way? A matter worthy of investigation (for instance) could be why Indian and western classical music evolved to emphasise melody and harmony, respectively.

Since it is widely believed that music owes originally to prayer, a hypothesis could be that common prayer led to harmony in music while the notion of the personal god led to melody. Voices singing in unison would need to be organised for the result to be ‘musical’.

Another key observation is that for the spiritual in culture – which would include the arts – to bloom, it would need growth, since culture should address the contemporary in some way. But once we introduce study and development, I would argue that the ‘material realm’ would naturally intrude into the spiritual one. Apart from sociological investigations, music, for instance, would need to use the technology available to the fullest to improve upon itself.

Personal goals

Chatterjee does not elaborate on this aspect but the ‘spiritual’ side of Indian culture as opposed to the ‘material’ realm that the West dominates, owes, arguably, to Indian modes of thinking that place emphasis on personal salvation rather than social transformation and progress. But, extending the argument, how are a group of individuals preoccupied with personal (spiritual) ends to come together to imagine/create a nation collectively, entirely through such personal goals? For such a collection of individuals to band together with common ‘national’ objectives, they would necessarily have to stray deep into the ‘material’ realm.

Lastly, we also need to interrogate the notion of an ‘uncontaminated’ national culture. While one may be proud of the cultural achievements of the people in a designated space or community to which one belongs (a school, a family, a village), associating that pride with the ‘modern nation’ infects the notion. It is only the construct of the nation that makes a Kannada speaker from Bengaluru see an achievement in Bengal as his or her own, but that construct came about because of exercises undertaken in the material realm, like the writing of the Constitution. We could say that unless all these aspects are duly noted, the ‘colonial mentality’ will only remain a term of abuse.

(MK Raghavendra is a writer on politics, culture and film)

Source: The Federal, 4/05/22

Quote of the Day July 19, 2022

 

“The most important thing about motivation is goal setting. You should always have a goal.”
Francie Larrieu Smith

“प्रेरणा के पीछे सबसे महत्त्वपूर्ण बात लक्ष्य तय करना होता है। आपका हमेशा एक लक्ष्य अवश्य होना चाहिए।”
फ्रैंसी लैरियू स्मिथ

How QR codes work, and how they are hacked

 The ubiquitous QR code was invented in 1994 by Japan’s Denso Wave; company engineer Masahiro Hara created it originally with the intention to make manufacturing operations more efficient

In this era of digitalisation, there is never a day that passes without the use of a QR code. This technology has become a part of our lives, more so after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 with an emphasis on going contactless to avoid the spread of the deadly virus.

The ubiquitous QR code (quick response code) was first invented in 1994 by Japan’s manufacturer Denso Wave. August 8, 2021, marked the 27th anniversary of the QR code.

The QR code was developed by Denso company engineer Masahiro Hara, originally with the intention to make manufacturing operations more efficient.

According to Denso, it decided to make the technology license-free in order to encourage its use by as many people as possible and released QR codes for general use.

What is a QR code?

It is a type of barcode with a series of black pixels in a square-shaped grid on a white background. It contains various forms of data, like website links, account information, phone numbers, or even coupons.

Unlike the standard barcodes that read in only one direction – top to bottom and store only less amount of information, QR codes are two-dimensional (2D). QR codes can be read in two directions – top to bottom and right to left. This allows them to store more data – 7,089 digits or 4,296 characters. They use approximately 10 times less space than a traditional barcode.

A QR code can encode numerals, alphabetical characters, symbols, binary data, control codes and other data. They can be read at high speed regardless of the scanning angle. The secret lies in three position detection patterns, which are located in each code, enabling stable high-speed reading without being affected by the background patterns.

Position detection pattern

The most challenging problem for the development team of the QR code was how to make 2D codes read as fast as possible; it is more difficult for scanners to recognise the location of a 2D code than that of a barcode. One day, Hara hit on the idea of adding, to the code, information that indicates its location, which might solve this problem.

Based on this idea, a position detection pattern, located at three corners of each code, was created. He expected that by incorporating this pattern into a 2D code, a scanner could accurately recognise the code and thereby read it at high speed.

However, developing the shape of the position detection pattern was extremely difficult because when a similarly shaped figure was near the code, the pattern could not be recognised accurately. To prevent false recognition, the position detection pattern had to have a unique shape.

“The development team members began an exhaustive survey of the ratio of white to black areas in pictures and characters printed on leaflets, magazines, corrugated cartons and other documents after reducing them to patterns with black and white areas. They continued to study numerous printed matter day and night, and at last, identified the ratio that least appeared on the printed matter. It was 1:1:3:1:1. In this way, the widths of the black and white areas in the position detection pattern were determined and scanners became able to detect the code regardless of the scanning angle by finding this unique ratio,” the company explained.

How do QR codes work?

According to anti-virus provider Kaspersky, the patterns within QR codes represent binary codes that can be interpreted to reveal the code’s data. A QR reader can identify a standard QR code based on the three large squares outside the QR code. Once it has identified these three shapes, it knows that everything contained inside the square is a QR code. The QR reader then analyses the QR code by breaking the whole thing down into a grid. It looks at the individual grid squares and assigns each one a value based on whether it is black or white. It then groups grid squares to create larger patterns.

Parts of a QR code

A standard QR code is identifiable based on six components: Quiet Zone, Finder pattern, Alignment pattern, Timing pattern, Version information, and Data cells, said Kaspersky and explained the following.

• Quiet Zone: This is the empty white border around the outside of a QR code. Without this border, a QR reader will not be able to determine what is and is not contained within the QR code (due to interference from outside elements).
• Finder pattern: QR codes usually contain three black squares in the bottom left, top left, and top right corners. These squares tell a QR reader that it is looking at a QR code and where the outside boundaries of the code lie.
• Alignment pattern: This is another smaller square contained somewhere near the bottom right corner. It ensures that the QR code can be read, even if it is skewed or at an angle.
• Timing pattern: This is an L-shaped line that runs between the three squares in the finder pattern. The timing pattern helps the reader identify individual squares within the whole code and makes it possible for a damaged QR code to be read.
• Version information: This is a small field of information contained near the top-right finder pattern cell. This identifies which version of the QR code is being read.
• Data cells: The rest of the QR code communicates the actual information, i.e., the URL, phone number, or message it contains.

Types of QR code

QR codes can be used for multiple purposes, but there are four widely accepted versions of QR codes. The version used determines how data can be stored and is called the “input mode”. It can be either numeric, alphanumeric, binary, or kanji. The type of mode is communicated via the version information field in the QR code.

• Numeric mode: This is for decimal digits 0 through 9. A numeric mode is the most effective storage mode, with up to 7,089 characters available.
• Alphanumeric mode: This is for decimal digitals 0 through 9, plus uppercase letters A through Z, and symbols $, %, *, +, –, ., /, and : as well as a space. It allows up to 4,296 characters to be stored.
• Byte mode: This is for characters from the ISO–8859–1 character set. It allows 2,953 characters to be stored.
• Kanji mode – This is for double–byte characters from the Shift JIS character set and used to encode characters in Japanese. This is the original mode, first developed by Denso Wave, according to Kaspersky.

Are QR codes safe?

Kaspersky warns that attackers can embed malicious URLs containing custom malware into a QR code which could then exfiltrate data from a mobile device when scanned. It is also possible to embed a malicious URL into a QR code that directs to a phishing site, where unsuspecting users could disclose personal or financial information. Because humans cannot read QR codes, it is easy for attackers to alter a QR code to point to an alternative resource without being detected.

Can QR codes be hacked?

“The QR codes themselves can’t be hacked – the security risks associated with QR codes derive from the destination of QR codes rather than the codes themselves. Hackers can create malicious QR codes which send users to fake websites that capture their personal data such as login credentials or even track their geolocation on their phones. This is why mobile users should only scan codes that come from a trusted sender,” says the company.

Source: The Federal, 19/07/22

India to submit report on Arunachal’s Chakmas-Hajongs to UN anti-racism body

 The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination in April had ordered India to provide information if the refugees from Bangladesh were facing discrimination and eviction from Arunachal Pradesh in violation of Supreme Court directives to provide them Indian citizenship

India on Friday (July 15) is expected to submit its action-taken report on the steps taken to prevent any deportation or relocation of the Chakma and Hajong communities of Arunachal Pradesh, to the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD), the United Nations’ anti-racism body.

CERD has mandated that the action-taken report should clearly specify if any special census was conducted to deport the Chakmas and Hajongs from Arunachal Pradesh, and mention measures adopted to prevent and combat their racial profiling or racial discrimination.

The report is also supposed to specify if the judgements of the Supreme Court in the cases of the National Human Rights Commission vs State of Arunachal Pradesh and Anr and the Committee for CR of CAP; and Ors vs State of Arunachal Pradesh and Ors, were implemented.

The Chakmas, predominantly Buddhists, and Hajongs, mostly Hindus, are tribes of the Chittagong Hills of the erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) who migrated to India after facing religious persecution in the Islamic country, following the destruction of their homes by the Kaptai dam on the Karnaphuli River in the 1960s. The Indian government rehabilitated the communities in Arunachal Pradesh, where have been living for the past 50 years.

In a major ruling in 2015, the Supreme Court had approved the grant of Indian citizenship to some 54,000 refugees from the two communities.

The Centre in 2017 also promised to grant Indian citizenship to around 1 lakh Chakma and Hajong refugees under the Citizenship Amendment Act. But it led to widespread protests in the northeast as the locals fear giving the communities permanent citizenship will alter the tribal-dominant demographics of the region.

On 29 April 2022, CERD, consisting of 18 experts (elected by the members of the United Nations) directed India to submit its action-taken report after it intervened against announcement of relocation by then Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh in August 2001; the special census of the two tribes launched by Deputy Commissioner of Changlang district in November 2021 to deport them, and the alleged non-processing of their citizenship applications in deference to Supreme Court orders.

“The intervention of the UN top anti-racism body is a recognition of racial discrimination faced by the Chakmas and Hajongs of Arunachal Pradesh by the United Nations. That the UN has to intervene seeking implementation of the Supreme Court’s judgements in the country sends an absolutely wrong message on India. If the Supreme Court judgments are not implemented by the Union of India and the State of Arunachal Pradesh, it basically means that the rule of law does not exist in the country for the Chakmas and Hajongs,” Suhas Chakma, founder of the Chakma Development Foundation of India (CDFI) said in a press release.

ndia had ratified the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD) in 1968 accepting its legal enforceability in India and on 21 September 2010. India also issued gazette notification specifying the Convention “as an international covenant in its application to the protection of human rights in India” under the Protection of Human Rights Act, 1993.

Source: The Federal, 15/07/22

Jagriti: Mascot for Consumer Rights

 Recently, Jagriti Mascot was launched by the Department of Consumer Affairs (DoCA), in a bid to empower consumers and generate awareness on their rights.

About Jagriti Mascot

• Jagriti Mascot will help in empowering consumers and generating awareness among them about “consumer rights”.
• The Mascot will be presented as an empowered consumer, mushrooming awareness on consumer rights and addressing solutions for the problems faced by consumers.
• It will raise consumer awareness on several themes of the Department such as, Hallmarking, provisions of Consumer Protection Act 2019, provisions of weights & measures Act, National Consumer Helpline toll free number 1915, decisions of Central Consumer Protection Authority besides the consumers’ testimonials on grievance redressal.
• Jagriti mascot will be displayed along with tagline “Jago Grahak Jago” across all the media campaigns.
• Jagriti Mascot and “Jago Grahak Jago tagline” are new synonymous with young aware consumers. Both of these seek to bring sharp focus towards consumer rights knowledge and movement.

Aim of the Jagriti Mascot

Through the Jagriti Mascot, DoCA aims to build up campaign on consumer awareness campaign in digital and multimedia. It also seeks to support for a young, empowered and informed consumer as consumer rights awareness recall brand.

Jago Grahak Jago Program

Jago Grahak Jago is consumer awareness campaign. Department of Food has launched in 2005. Government used different mediums to raise awareness among consumers including- Media advertisements, Printings, Audio campaigns, Video campaigns and Posters.

What are Consumer Rights?

Consumer right can be defined as the “right to have information regarding quality, quantity, potency, price, purity, and standard of goods or services”.

Consumer Protection Act 1986

Consumer Protection Act 1986 was enacted in 1986, for the protection of consumers’ interests in India. It came into effect on December 24, 1986. Consumer Protection Act, 2019 has now replaced the 1986 act.

Consumer Protection Act 2019

Consumer Protection Bill, 2019 was introduced in Lok Sabha on July 8, 2019. The act came into force from July 20, 2020. In line with the Consumer Protection Act 2019, the e-commerce entity are mandated to display the country of origin, on every product.

NEP 2020: Absorb ancient Indian knowledge, but view it critically

 The University Grants Commission (UGC), the apex regulator of universities in India, just concluded the Akhil Bharatiya Shiksha Sangam, a three-day education summit, in Varanasi. The summit, held from July 7-9 and inaugurated by none less than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, brought together over 300 heads of higher education institutions to deliberate on strategies, success stories, and best practices in implementing the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020.

Nine themes were taken up for discussion, ranging from ‘Holistic and Multidisciplinary Education’ and ‘Quality, Ranking, and Accreditation’ to ‘Research, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship’. Experts and educators deliberated on these themes for three days.

So, what is the likelihood of progress in India’s higher education after this summit?

If we can focus on one of the themes taken up for the discussion, it may help us get a glimpse of what UGC plans to do vis-à-vis what could be of value to us.

Let’s take Theme 7, ‘Promotion of Indian Languages and Knowledge Systems’, and subject it to a bit of scrutiny.

Focus on Indian Knowledge System

The summit wants the ‘discontinuity’ in the Indian Knowledge Systems (IKS) to be bridged by integrating it with curricula at all levels across humanities, sciences, arts, crafts, and sports. Every UG and PG programme will have a mandatory IKS component.  The UGC has constituted an experts’ panel to set the guidelines for teacher training and ‘orientation’ in IKS. The focus seems to be on finding out sets of knowledge claims in ancient texts, accepting them across domains, and then integrating them with current curricula in universities.

While anyone would agree that there could be valuable lessons to be drawn from IKS, there is one critical part that is missing in UGC’s action plan: encouraging critical examination of material from IKS and accepting only those that get sifted through the filters of reasoning and evidence.

Ayurveda as example

It might help to further narrow our focus and consider a single branch of IKS in some detail to understand its usefulness in the contemporary context. Take Ayurveda, for example. The way it is being practised in clinics and taught in Ayurveda medical colleges is that the wisdom of the ancient texts cannot be questioned.

However, according to a paper titled ‘Bridging Ayurveda with evidence-based scientific approaches in medicine’ by former UGC vice-chairman Bhushan Patwardhan, “Ayurveda lags far behind in scientific evidence in quantity and quality of randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews. For instance, out of 7,864 systematic reviews in the Cochrane Library, Ayurveda has just one, while homeopathy and TCM (traditional Chinese medicine) have 5 and 14, respectively. Substantial grants have been allocated to ambitious national projects involving reputed laboratories. However, the design, methodology, and quality of clinical trial on Ayurvedic medicines seem to lack the expected rigour.”

(Cochrane Library is a collection of six databases that contain different types of high-quality, independent evidence to inform healthcare decision-making. Cochrane Reviews are globally accepted as the highest standard in evidence-based healthcare.)

So, how do we go about injecting rigour into this traditional system and align it with modern medical practice, using a scientific approach?

For that, we need to get a glimpse of what Ayurveda was like in the days of Caraka (pronounced Charaka), a master physician and principal contributor, along with Susruta and Vagbhata. The treatise, Caraka Samhita, attributed to him, forms the bedrock of today’s Ayurvedic practice.

Herein lies a stark contrast. Dr MS Valiathan, a renowned cardiac surgeon and author of the book The Legacy of Caraka, says: “Caraka described the practice of medicine in his time (1st Century CE) in North-West India, which was reason-based in contrast to the faith-based practice during Atharva Veda (1500 BCE). He even gave yukti (reason) an independent status as a pramana (proof) in acquiring knowledge. In Caraka’s time, mantras and rituals had largely disappeared from medical practice.”

However, over centuries, reason has been replaced with blind faith in the system. In a sense, we seem to have come to a full circle – from faith to reason and then back to faith.

Look with a critical eye

In a kind of double whammy, this comes at a time when reason, which made major advances possible two millennia ago, is perhaps no longer enough. We need evidence-based medical practice, which Ayurveda seems to fall behind significantly compared to Western medicine. Nudging it back to a reason-based medical system would involve examining concepts in ancient texts, including Caraka Samhita, with a critical eye. Obsolete concepts may have to be discarded. Some concepts may need to be modified – marginally or significantly – and amalgamated with modern medical practices. All possibilities exist.

But the bottom-line is scanning texts like Caraka Samhita with a fine toothcomb using critical thinking combined with what we now know about human anatomy and physiology, in contrast to what Caraka knew. In short, reviving the spirit of Caraka without uncritically accepting the principles in Caraka Samhita and other ancient texts.

THE WAY WE HAVE ASSIMILATED THE MONUMENTAL WORK ASHTADHYAYI, THE WORLD’S EARLIEST KNOWN TOME ON LINGUISTICS, BY GRAMMARIAN PANINI, IS A POINTER TO HOW WE SHOULD TREAT IKS TEXTS.

There is at least one ancient IKS that has the potential to show the way. The way we have assimilated the monumental work Ashtadhyayi, the world’s earliest known tome on linguistics, by grammarian Panini, who is said to have lived between the 6th and 4th century BCE, is a pointer to how we should treat IKS texts. No one questions the contribution of Panini to linguistics. He is widely labeled as the father of linguistics. But the discipline itself has progressed beyond Panini. Can what happened in linguistics happen in other IKS domains too?

The issue of language

The second part of Theme 7 deals with the ‘Promotion of Indian Languages’. UGC lists initiatives such as the All-India Council for Technical Education (AICTE), the apex body that controls technical education in India, approving 20 institutes in nine states to conduct engineering and technology courses in regional languages. AICTE is undertaking technical book writing and translation into 12 Indian languages.

Now, this does not amount to pushing the frontiers of knowledge in technology. This seems to be a recipe for converting AICTE, or at least one of its wings, into a translation bureau.

In which language should higher education be is more a function of the availability of resources and opportunities – for both jobs and research – in that language. A century ago, German was the language of physics. The most famous physicist of the last century, Albert Einstein, wrote his papers on relativity in German.

However, as the US gained prowess to become the most important force in science, as well as the preferred destination for top scientists, German lost out to English. Now, German universities, in their attempt to attract overseas students, advertise saying that the courses in their institutions are taught in English.

Closer home, in September 2019, the government of Andhra Pradesh announced that English would be the medium of instruction in all government schools. Of course, Telugu would be still taught as a subject, but that’s about it. Expect this to become a trend in other states too. In short, a realistic option for higher education institutions is to focus on improving the quality of content delivered rather than re-create content in an Indian language.

However, in universities, even if the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against regional languages in favour of English, there could be a few realistic options for promoting Indian languages – such as initiating online courses that address students bi-lingually, allowing students to write exams in a mix of English and regional languages. But that is about it.

We have examined just one theme in some detail. What seems true of  ‘Promotion of Indian Languages and Knowledge Systems’ could be true of the other eight themes taken up at Akhil Bharatiya Shiksha Sangam as well.

Overall, UGC has a task cut out. Begin prioritising and implementing proposals with tight deadlines, and tell the world about the progress and what the outcomes are (for the students), before moving on to the next summit and more proposals.

(Sriram Naganathan is a core team member of ThinQ (www.thinq.education). He can be reached at srihamsa@gmail.com)

Source: The Federal, 15/07/22

Population growth: Myths, realities and the deeper neglect

 As India prospers, educational standards improve and more and more women acquire a degree of control over their own lives, the population growth rate would keep falling, and eventually turn negative.

The UN report posits that India would overtake China in population in 2023. This has given rise to dire warnings of a population explosion in India, and concerted exhortations to adopt stringent measures to curb population growth.

The publication of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2022 has served as an occasion for the display in India of much bigotry and ignorance by very many people who should know better.

The report posits that India would overtake China in population in 2023. This has given rise to dire warnings of a population explosion in India, and concerted exhortations to adopt stringent measures to curb population growth.

In the ideas sphere of the Sangh Parivar, the family of organisations that take ideological inspiration from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, of which the BJP is a proud member, population explosion is code for the danger of Muslims outnumbering Hindus in India. The UN report’s release has been followed by shrill calls to rein in Muslim proliferation, forcing the BJP’s Muslim face, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, to say that the population explosion is a problem for the nation, and not of any particular community.

Let us get some things straight.

• There is no population explosion. On the other hand, India has entered a phase in which we have to prepare for a dwindling population, like Japan.
• One man marrying multiple women does not increase the population any more than one man marrying one woman.
• A child born represents not just a mouth to feed but two hands and a brain to create new value. Particularly in a post-agrarian society, each additional human being would produce far more than is required to sustain herself. People are a source of wealth, not a burden.
• Socio-economic backwardness is the biggest determinant of population growth, not religion.

India’s population grew the fastest in the 1970s and the 1980s, when the annual growth rate of the population was around 2.3%. The growth rate has steadily declined, and struggles to reach 1% now. As India prospers, educational standards improve and more and more women acquire a degree of control over their own lives, the population growth rate would keep falling, and eventually turn negative.

What determines the rate of population growth is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. This is called the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). When this is high, the population would grow. When it falls, the growth rate of population would fall.

When it reaches two, on average, each woman would replace two people of her generation with two new lives. Since every infant does not survive to adulthood, the average number of children per woman has to be a little higher than 2, for new births to replace eventual deaths of the mother and her reproductive partner. The replacement TFR is generally accepted as 2.1.

According to the findings of the Fifth Round of National Family Health Survey, released in May, TFR for India as a whole has already dipped below 2.1. The survey was conducted over 2019-21, and yielded a TFR of 1.99 for India as a whole.

Some states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand continue to have TFRs higher than 2.1, but in these places too, the trend is downward. This is a uniform trend from the First Family Health Survey (1992-93) onwards.

Rural fertility rates tend to be higher than urban ones. The fertility rate falls across income quintiles, proceeding from the lowest fifth to the highest 20%. TFR for women with zero years of schooling is 2.82, that for women with more than 12 years of schooling is 1.78.

Socio-economic status and the degree of autonomy women seem to determine how many children they end up having, on average. It is not surprising that a poor state like Bihar has a fertility rate of 2.99, while the figure for Kerala is 1.8 and that for Goa, 1.3.

Muslim population vs Hindus

Let us look at the bugbear of the Hindu right, the supposedly exploding population of Muslims. Muslims at large have a relatively low socio-economic status, and their fertility rates are higher than those of Hindus. However, at 2.36, the Muslim average TFR is lower than that for Bihar (2.99) as a whole and on par with Uttar Pradesh’s 2.35.

Does a Muslim man marrying multiple wives increase Muslim fecundity? Since the number of men roughly equals the number of women, when many men take multiple wives, they condemn several other men to lives of solitude. Population grows with the number of children and children are born to women. The average number of children born to a woman determines the size of the population, not whether several women were impregnated by the same man or by different men.

The average TFR for Muslims is admittedly higher than the average TFR for Hindus. But Muslim TFR has been declining faster than the Hindu TFR, as the periodic NFHS rounds show. The TFR for Muslims has come down from 4.43 in 1992-93 to 2.35 in 2019-21, a decline of nearly 47%. For Hindus, the decline was from 3.3 to 1.94, a decline of 42%.

In Kerala’s Muslim-majority Malappuram district, the TFR lagged the TFR of other districts, but has gone below the replacement level of 2.1. Bangladesh has a TFR well below 2.1, as has Iran and Turkey.

As India prospers, backward states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and socioeconomically deprived communities like Muslims and the Scheduled Castes would also advance, and register ever lower TFRs.

The population would not begin to decline as soon as a society achieves a TFR below 2.1. Better healthcare and nutrition keep people alive longer. The youth bulge created before the TFR begins to decline would continue to reproduce. And, even if at a low rate for each woman member of that youth bulge, the size of that reproductive age group would keep the population growing, till they themselves grow old and fall by the wayside. The cohorts that come after them would be smaller than the numbers who pass on, making the population shrink.

Japan and several countries of Western Europe have gone through the transition. In Germany, a shrinking human population paved the way for the return of the wolf to that land. The US is one rich country that is insulated from the problem of a shrinking population because of the constant infusion of fresh blood via immigration.

The real population problem

Why is a shrinking population a problem? Its share of the elderly, non-working population would steadily rise. They have to be cared for by the incomes generated by the proportionately shrinking population of workers.

Just because someone has prudently saved during their work-life, it does not automatically mean that their old age needs would be met. The saving represents a claim on the productive capacity of the economy, from which profits, dividends, interest payments and taxes are extracted. If there are not enough people to work that productive capacity, merely having made financial savings in the past would not protect a pensioner from a tough life.

This is why China abandoned its one-child policy and desperately seeks to persuade its citizens to have three children.

The challenge before India is not any population explosion, but in creating the human, physical and institutional capital that would raise productivity. Ruling party functionaries would do well to abandon futile projects such as conjuring up population dangers that do not exist or baring the fangs of regally serene ancient lions in their contemporary rendition, and focus their attention on this substantive challenge. That is the way to reap India’s demographic dividend.

TK Arun

The Federal, 15/07/22